Nonfarm data shocks! December rate hike probability surges to 77.7%—is the Fed done playing nice this time?

The US labor market suddenly taught global financial markets a lesson: when the data is so strong, rate cuts are off the table!
On November 6, US October nonfarm payroll data was released, showing employment gains of 165k, far above the market expectation of 65k. This means the US labor market has not cooled significantly; instead, it remains quite strong.
What made the market even more nervous was that the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4% month over month. More jobs, a lower unemployment rate, and rising wages—put together, these three figures look like a rate hike application delivered straight to the Fed.
After the data was released, traders’ bets on a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in December rose to 77.7%.
The market had originally been hoping for rate cuts, but the employment data slammed on the brakes.
However, probability is not the final decision. The Fed still needs to assess inflation, consumption, and financial conditions.
The question is: if rates really rise in December, which will feel the pressure first—gold, US stocks, or the dollar?$MU #AI科技股大跌加密市场承压