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The Senate is gearing up for an all-nighter. Scott is calling for lawmakers to return Monday and meet every day through January, giving up the recess windows for Thanksgiving and Christmas. Under Congress’s usual schedule, there would normally be about a week off around each holiday. If they really move forward with this plan, lawmakers and staff will basically be working nonstop through hearings, votes, and hallway negotiations. More importantly, budget reform and election integrity are being bundled together, clearly leaving the other side no breathing room. Budget bills can usually be broken into provisions, handled through different procedures, or delayed. But once election integrity is thrown into the mix, there’s suddenly much less room to negotiate, essentially forcing the other side to confront the issue head-on in procedural votes. This kind of hardball is unusual in an election year. Either they’re genuinely in a hurry and trying to force an outcome through sheer agenda pressure, or they’re playing to their base and making a show of “not backing down.” There are historical examples to look at, too: the 2018–2019 government shutdown lasted 35 days, during which the S&P 500 fell and then recovered. The 16-day shutdown in 2013 also had a limited overall market impact. The market really is becoming more tolerant of government shutdowns; it can barely be bothered to react to short-term disruptions unless a shutdown starts affecting data releases, airport security, or payments on federal contracts. As for whether this take on a certain coin is right, check back next week.

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