$QNTX From 31.3 to 38.15 in 24 hours, an 18.88% surge, with 7.1M in trading volume—I got chills looking at these figures, because the last time I saw an almost identical pattern was on day 47 after the third halving. Those who chased in back then are still trying to break even.

Reviewing my trade: I placed my order at 31.8, based on the fact that in the first three halving cycles, a violent shakeout of around 20% followed by a rally occurred between weeks 6 and 8 after the halving. This $QNTX rally from the bottom has landed right in that window. I sold half at 37.2—not because I’m bearish, but because the 24-hour high of 38.15 looks too much like a fake breakout in the second halving cycle. Back then, it also surged, pulled back 3 points, moved sideways for two days, and then dumped. How did I handle the position? Honestly, in the six hours from buying to 37.2, I checked the chart at least forty times. I felt the urge to add to my position three times and resisted each time, because historical data tells me the risk/reward ratio for adding here isn’t worthwhile.
Comparing data from the same stage after the three previous halvings: the average gain was 14.2% after the first, 21.7% after the second, and 16.4% after the third. The current 18.88% sits right in the middle—not overheated, but definitely not cheap. Trading volume of 7.1M is a moderate increase for this market cap tier, with none of the wild price-volume divergence seen at the tops of the previous two bull markets. The pattern is that the probability of the first correction of around 20% occurring between weeks 6 and 10 after a halving is 100%, but there’s often one last surge before the pullback.
Trade plan: don’t chase at the current price of 37.27. Wait for a pullback to the 34.5 to 35 range and buy in batches. Set the stop-loss below 31.3 (today’s low), keep the position under 15% of total capital, and take profit at 42 for the first target. The second target is 48, but you must cut the position by half. Remember, with volatility like $QNTX’s, leverage above 3x is just handing money to the exchange.
I’m Yige, the trader in the group who speaks only with historical data and never calls trades based on emotion. I’m tracking every halving-related time point for $QNTX this cycle; those who are keeping up know I never claim I called it after the fact.
History doesn’t simply repeat, but it does rhyme. #每周来晒 #Gate广场中秋团圆局