#AI科技股大跌加密市场承压 #WCTCS9 #BTC行情分析 Bitcoin fell to $74,888, an 11-week low: Why 67% of traders are still long is the real problem

At 8 a.m. today, Bitcoin hit a low of $74,888. That was its lowest level since August, a new 11-week low.
But at the same time, if you look at the price change, you’ll find a puzzling number: it was down just 0.3% over the past 24 hours. It hit a new low, but didn’t fall much further. That contrast is the most noteworthy thing today.

1. First, let’s look at the numbers across three time frames
Looking at just one day can be misleading; we need to consider three time frames together: 24 hours: down 0.3%, with a high of 76,416 and a low of 74,888.
Past 7 days: down 2.2%.
Past 30 days: down 9.0%, falling all the way from 84,898. Short-term losses are narrowing, while medium-term losses are still growing.
In other words, most of those in a hurry to sell have already done so, but no new buyers have stepped in. Reduced selling pressure doesn’t mean buying has arrived. These two things are often conflated, but they mean the exact opposite.

2. $1 billion in liquidations sounds like a lot, but it isn’t enough
Over the past 24 hours, liquidations across the crypto market exceeded $1 billion, mostly among longs. That number sounds pretty alarming on its own. But compared with history, it’s not that much.
At a real bottom, liquidations are measured in tens of billions of dollars—that’s not just “someone losing money”; it’s leverage being wiped out on a large scale, with a batch of accounts disappearing for good and no longer able to turn around and go long. Liquidations on the scale of $1 billion look more like “bleeding out”: a little gets cut away every day, but someone always steps in to replenish it. Without a one-time market flush, the only option is to grind it out over time.

3. 67.5% are long—that’s the problem!
More informative than liquidations is the long-short ratio. The current market-wide long-short ratio is 2.08, meaning 67.5% of accounts are long and only 32.5% are short. After a full 30 days of declines, with a 9% drop, longs are still this crowded. Why does that matter?
Because a bottom is essentially the process of “shaking out everyone who’s bullish.” Selling only truly dries up when everyone is desperate, afraid to buy, and unwilling to talk about the market anymore. With 67.5% of people still long, most traders still believe that “the decline has probably gone far enough.” And that kind of consensus is often the best evidence that the bottom hasn’t arrived yet.
As long as so many people in the market are willing to use leverage to catch a falling knife, the decline is unlikely to end.

4. Funding rates are still positive; longs are paying to hold on
Here’s another, more direct number: perpetual futures funding rates are currently at +0.01%, settled every 8 hours. A positive rate means longs have to pay shorts to keep their positions open.
It’s not much—three payments a day, adding up to only a bit over 10% annualized. But the direction says a lot: longs are willing to pay to hold their positions, which means they’re still holding on and haven’t given up.
At a true bottom, rates turn negative. That’s because no one wants to go long anymore, and shorts have to pay longs to keep their short positions open.
This signal has appeared consistently across past cycles. Right now, rates are still positive.
So longs haven’t capitulated yet.

5. Technicals: three numbers, one conclusion! The RSI (14) is 37.7. The oversold threshold is 30, and we’re not there yet.
Technically, being “oversold” doesn’t mean a rebound is guaranteed, but not being oversold means selling pressure hasn’t been fully exhausted. The price has fallen below the 200-day moving average at 76,497. This line had been support since the first half of this year. It was breached on November 4, and the price hasn’t managed to reclaim it since.
The assessment of the medium-term trend changed from that day onward. The ADX is only 19.7. This indicator measures trend strength; below 20 is generally considered “trendless.”
In other words, this is neither a sharp drop nor the end of a trend; it’s a sideways grind.
Put the three numbers together, and there’s only one conclusion: this isn’t a collapse; it’s attrition.

6. What did past bottoms look like?
Looking back at the lows of past cycles, one common feature stands out: every true bottom had a moment of “acceleration.”
At the end of 2018, after a full year of decline, there was a sharp, high-volume sell-off in the final two weeks, followed by a bottom.
In March 2020, Bitcoin plunged 40% in a single day, liquidations hit a record at the time, and the market recovered within a month.
In November 2022, the FTX event triggered a concentrated wave of panic selling, funding rates turned deeply negative, and the market bottomed afterward. What the three episodes had in common wasn’t “falling to a certain price,” but sentiment and leverage being wiped out all at once. High volume, a sharp drop, and negative funding rates often happened together. The current market, by contrast, is seeing a gradual decline on declining volume, positive funding rates, and crowded longs. In terms of its pattern, this looks more like the first half of 2018 than the final two weeks.

7. What should you watch now?
Trying to guess the price level is pointless. A bottom is a range, not a single point. Anyone who tells you “this is the bottom” is making a bet. Rather than guessing, watch three observable things:
First, funding rates turn negative and stay there for several days.
One day doesn’t count; it needs to be consecutive. That would mean longs have truly given up.
Second, daily liquidations surge to tens of billions of dollars.
That’s a sign that the leverage flush is complete.
Third, a high-volume candle with a long lower wick appears, and the low isn’t broken the next day. That’s evidence that buying has truly stepped in. Only when all three appear can you call it a bottom. Right now, none of them have.

8. Finally
Leverage hasn’t been flushed out, longs haven’t left the market, sentiment hasn’t collapsed, and funding rates are still positive. Historically, when all four conditions are present at once, it’s rarely a bottom.
You can’t control the direction or the news. Your position size is the only thing that is 100% up to you. With the right position size, you can survive even if your judgment is wrong; with the wrong position size, even a correct call is hard to hold. There’s no need to rush. A truly good opportunity won’t last just one day. $BTC