Three trillion dollars evaporated in a single day. I stared at that number for ages, repeatedly trying to wrap my head around it: it’s roughly equivalent to a mid-sized economy’s GDP for an entire year, and close to several percentage points of the S&P 500’s total market cap. The Nasdaq 100 closed down 6.4%—based on the index level at the time, that’s a plunge of more than a thousand points. Almost none of the heavyweight tech stocks were spared. Names that usually prop up the index—Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla—collectively became a drag. The VIX fear gauge surged at the same time, while Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index swung back and forth. The last time things were this bad was March 2020. Back then, I was at home scrambling for toilet paper, half the shelves at the supermarket downstairs were empty, and my phone was flooded with alerts about circuit breakers and plunges. History has a way of feeling absurd.

Tonight, I’m watching the 2:30 p.m. employment report, not the market. With 33 days to go until the Fed’s December 9 decision, this report will largely set the tone for rate-cut expectations. The market is currently pricing in rate-cut odds on CME FedWatch, and any hint of a change prompts a repricing. If employment is strong—say, nonfarm payroll growth far exceeds expectations, the unemployment rate keeps falling, and average hourly earnings don’t decline month over month—then rate-cut expectations will have to be dialed back, Treasury yields will push higher, and growth stocks will take the first hit to their valuations. If employment is weak—say, job gains fall to a low level and the unemployment rate ticks up—the market will start fearing a recession, and risk assets will still take a beating. That’s the no-win situation people mean when they say “good data is bad news, and bad data is bad news too.”

Liquidity is thinnest in the early hours of the morning, with sparse orders on the books and wicks most likely to form. Don’t ask me how I know—when the order book is thin, a few large orders can send prices plunging and then bouncing back in an instant. Stop-loss orders get swept up like dominoes, and by the time you react, the candlestick has already left a long wick. At times like these, position sizing matters more than having a strong view.

What about you? Are you reducing your position this time, or holding on tight?