#Gate股票畅聊季 #WCTCS9 Historic crash in U.S. tech stocks: What history tells us about what comes next?

On Thursday, as concerns intensified that AI infrastructure buildout would slow after Democrats swept Congress, U.S. tech stocks suffered a historic selloff, sending the Nasdaq Composite into correction territory.
Historical precedent suggests markets may face more selling pressure in the short term, but often see a recovery rally three months later.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 5.52% in a single day, its biggest one-day drop since U.S. President Donald Trump announced “Liberation Day” tariffs in April 2025, and fell 11% from the record high it hit last month.
On Wall Street, any decline of more than 10% is defined as a “correction,” while a 20% decline is considered entry into a “bear market.” Chip stocks plunged across the board on Thursday, making them one of the hardest-hit sectors of the day. The iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) fell 12%, its worst one-day performance since the COVID-19 outbreak in March 2020. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 12.25%, hitting a more than six-month low.
The Nasdaq Composite’s constituent stocks are estimated to have lost $2.5 trillion in market value that day, while the Magnificent Seven tech giants shed about $1.04 trillion combined.

History offers a guide: More selling pressure may lie ahead in the short term!
Looking back at the 10 correction episodes over the past decade, markets saw further selling within a month of the corrections in 2025, 2022, 2020, and 2018.
However, except for 2022, the Nasdaq returned to an upward trend within six months of every other correction.
Overall, measured from the bottom of a correction, the Nasdaq gained an average of 9.41% over the following three months, and an average of 17.03% over six months. The correction in January 2022 was the most severe. The index fell a further 18.3% over the following six months, and was down 24.3% over a year.

The trigger for this correction was the Democrats’ sweep of the House and Senate in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
Democrats also scored major victories in several U.S. data center “hotspots,” including Texas. Gina Hinojosa won the Texas gubernatorial race, with her platform including an immediate pause on data center construction. Investors are now weighing whether tighter restrictions at the state level could slow data center construction, putting pressure on companies tied to the artificial intelligence (AI) trade.

Frank Cappelleri, founder of CappThesis, looked to past midterm election cycles for clues and found that markets may see more volatility in the short term. The chart analyst said that in 12 of the 13 midterm election cycles since 1974, the Nasdaq rose in the 12 months after the election. “It’s important to note that the process may be volatile,” he said.
Cappelleri noted that in 2018, for example, the Nasdaq rallied the day after Democrats won control of the House. Although the index then saw a sharp selloff in December, it was still up about 15% in the year following the election.