Still debating whether to buy? The direction is already set. Half of the inflows during the Bitcoin spot ETF wave weren’t genuine buying pressure. Markus Thielen of 10x Research put it plainly: Of the $60 billion in inflows, about half came from market makers’ hedging trades—not buyers looking to build positions. In other words, the numbers show money flowing into ETFs, but some of that capital is simply being used to hedge positions; it doesn’t mean an equal amount of long-term buyers entered the market. That explains why every rally seems to run out of steam. After ETF inflow data is released, prices jump in the short term, but futures basis, implied volatility, and spot trading volume don’t strengthen in tandem, and prices then pull back. Institutions keep selling call options at elevated prices, pushing volatility down, and Wall Street options traders snuff out the so-called explosive rally before it can take off. To stay delta-neutral, options market makers sell as prices rise and buy as they fall, further compressing the market into a range. Looking back at this ETF rally, the upside wasn’t strong enough, while the pullbacks dragged on—the options structure dictated the pace. Cumulative inflows of $60 billion are no small amount, but prices never made the one-way move many people expected. That’s because the nature of the capital and the options structure worked together. I’ve learned this the hard way. I set my stops too close and got stopped out twice: once when a quick price spike hit my stop and immediately reversed, and once when the market chopped sideways and my stop was triggered just before the move finally came. I’ve learned my lesson. I no longer use tight short-term stops to bet on a direction in a market being held in check by hedging. Before the direction is clear, chasing highs just hands market makers more chips for hedging. If you think I’m talking nonsense, save a screenshot and come back later to check. #BitcoinETF #Options