#Gate Stock Market Chat Season

On November 4, A-shares really lifted spirits: the Shanghai Composite rose 2.16% to 3,686 points, the ChiNext surged 6.4%, the STAR Market Composite Index gained 9.90% in a single day, and turnover climbed back above 2 trillion. Semiconductors, memory chips, and CPO led the gains, with more than 4,600 stocks in the green.

But I admit, I’m still sitting on the sidelines.

My concern isn’t “whether to chase after the rise,” but how the rise happened. Just the day before, on November 3, the Shanghai Composite was still down 0.82%, the ChiNext was down 2.73%, turnover had shrunk to 1.7 trillion, and sentiment had hit rock bottom. Overnight, the market switched from a low-volume decline to a surge on heavy volume. The triggers were a joint effort by multiple government departments to stabilize the market, the national team buying ETFs with real money, and the boost to expectations for new energy from the U.S. midterm election results. These are real positives, but a first bullish candle driven by a policy impulse is fundamentally different from a trend reversal driven by an earnings cycle.

Even institutions are leaving themselves room for caution: turnover returning to 2 trillion shows that sidelined funds are starting to enter, but “does not yet mean the market has reached a stage bottom,” and there will most likely be further volatility and pullbacks. Before the rebound, the ChiNext Index had at one point fallen more than 40% from its previous high. A decline of that magnitude is hard to repair in a single day.

My plan is simple: don’t guess the bottom; wait for a pullback. If the index can hold key levels on lower volume after a bullish candle on heavy volume, I’ll consider moving my position from “testing the waters” to “participating.” The first bullish candle is for observation; only if the second pullback holds do I make a move.
#每周来晒