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When many people see Democrats winning both chambers, their first reaction is to wonder whether U.S. stocks and BTC will surge or plunge. But I think there is another market worth paying closer attention to: U.S. Treasuries.
The new Congress could shift the balance of power in fiscal budget negotiations, with taxes, government spending, and the debt ceiling all potentially becoming key points of contention between the parties.
If budget negotiations go smoothly, markets may gradually regain their composure; if they reach an impasse, Treasury yields, the dollar, and global risk assets could come under pressure.
For BTC in particular, dollar liquidity and real interest rates tend to have a more lasting impact than political rhetoric.
The same goes for U.S. stocks: valuations ultimately depend on interest rates and corporate earnings.
So what really matters in this election is not how many seats the Democrats won, but whether U.S. fiscal policy will become more uncertain over the next two years.
Investors need to learn to see the big picture: the president articulates a vision, Congress haggles, and the market scores everyone.
That’s what makes financial markets so interesting!$NVDA