#Gate上线台股交易 #每周来晒 It controls 90% of AI packaging capacity! Even if you're NVIDIA, you still have to answer to TSMC

Peeling back the layers of data in TSMC's earnings report reveals that, in today's global AI supply chain, it has built an utterly unreasonable monopoly empire.

1. First, look at the most obvious figures.
TSMC's revenue this quarter hit $46.7 billion, surging 16% quarter over quarter and easily beating market expectations. The main reasons are simple: a recovery in the smartphone market and insatiable global demand for AI computing power. Some attentive readers might raise an objection: wait, didn't its gross margin slip slightly this quarter, falling to 66.4%?
This isn't because anything is wrong with the fundamentals. It's simply that TSMC is in the early stages of ramping up mass production of its 2-nanometer process, and the ramp-up costs for new production lines are extraordinarily high, eating into some of its profits.
The figure that should really send a chill down your spine is this: TSMC's average revenue per 12-inch wafer has now surged against the trend to $10,438.
What does absolute pricing power mean? It means that no matter how gross margins fluctuate in the short term, I can still achieve structural price increases through my generational technological advantage.

2. People often watch NVIDIA, AMD, and Google's TPU duke it out online and think they're amazing. But many don't realize that TSMC has them all by the throat. That vital choke point is CoWoS (advanced packaging).
TSMC now firmly controls over 90% of global CoWoS capacity, and its monthly capacity is expected to double by the end of 2027, reaching an astonishing 200,000 wafers. In other words, no matter which giant you are, if you want a ticket to access computing power in the AI era, TSMC is an unavoidable toll booth.
What's even more interesting is TSMC's approach. A typical company holding something this scarce would surely go all-in on “highest bidder wins” and cash in aggressively. But TSMC hasn't. Instead, it has implemented an extremely strict quota system. This is a very savvy move. It avoids price hikes that could destabilize the entire supply chain, while keeping all the major manufacturers patiently in line and making itself the steadiest anchor in the entire AI infrastructure.

3. Next, let's talk about the advanced process nodes everyone cares most about.
Business at 7 nanometers and below now accounts for 79% of TSMC's total revenue, while 2 nanometers, which has only just begun ramping up mass production, captured an 8% share in a single quarter.
Compare it with its peers, and you'll understand what “dimensionality reduction” means. Samsung's SF2 and Intel's 18A nodes are still struggling to break through a density of 250 million transistors per square millimeter, while TSMC's 2-nanometer process has already reached 313 million (313 MTr/mm²). Industry insiders generally believe that technical specifications are only the surface; TSMC's real moat has two parts: mass-production yields far higher than its peers; and an exceptionally large ecosystem of external customers. It's basically impossible for traditional IDM giants (which design and manufacture their own chips) to break through this barrier in the short term. The winner-takes-all effect in chip foundry services has become firmly entrenched.

4. Finally, let's talk about the battle in the capital markets.
TSMC's capital expenditure this quarter held steady at $13.8 billion, while the market is most eager to see what happens in 2027—capital expenditure is expected to reach an astonishing $85 billion. The funny thing, though, is that Wall Street analysts had hoped TSMC's management would make a bold promise on the earnings call, such as maintaining growth above 40% after 2027. But management kept its cards close to its chest and gave an ambiguous outlook, leaving the capital markets a little disappointed. But if you think TSMC is being conservative, you're completely mistaken. On the call, management delivered an extremely forceful statement: “We don't intend to leave the food on the table for others. We want to capture every piece of business we possibly can.” Blunt but true: its ambition is now out in the open—when it comes to producing AI chips in the future, it wants it all.

In this second half of the AI race sweeping the globe, TSMC has achieved extreme dominance, whether over physical limits or the production-capacity choke point. Who, if anyone, can truly break through?$TSM