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$BTC
Bitcoin is currently showing a fascinating shift in its macro market structure. During the US midterm election years in 2014, 2018, and 2022, the asset traded below its 200-day moving average. This cycle is different. Bitcoin is currently holding above this long-term trend line, suggesting a potentially stronger foundation than we have seen in previous midterm cycles.
However, looking at the immediate price action, short-term bearish pressure is evident.
On the daily timeframe, the price is hovering around 76,200, having pulled back from a recent local high of 87,380. The asset is trading below its short-term EMAs and is pressing against the lower Bollinger Band. Momentum indicators like the MACD remain in negative territory, and On-Balance Volume is trending downward, reflecting active selling pressure.
The 4-hour timeframe confirms this downward momentum, with the price recently touching a local low of 75,700. That said, the MACD histogram is beginning to flatten, which could suggest temporary seller exhaustion. Zooming out to the weekly view, Bitcoin is testing a critical support zone just above the 30-week EMA, located near 76,600. The recent 15-minute action shows a minor relief bounce after the sharp drop.
Next Steps and What to Prepare For
The market is at a critical juncture. The macro bullish thesis remains valid only if key support levels hold. Here is what to monitor next.
Immediate Support. Keep a close eye on the 75,700 level. A sustained break below this point could open the door to further downside.
Macro Support. The major level to watch is the 200-day moving average near 73,000. If the price tests this area, it will be a real test of the midterm cycle theory.
Resistance. For a bullish reversal to gain traction, buyers need to reclaim the 78,000 level and push above short-term moving averages to shift the momentum.
Prepare for continued volatility. If a bounce occurs near current levels, wait for trend confirmation before considering long positions. If the 73,000 support breaks, prepare for a deeper correction and adjust risk management accordingly. The current setup requires strict risk management and tight stop losses as the market decides if this cycle will truly break historical patterns.
#BTCBreaksPastMidtermBearishPattern ‌