Today and over the next few days, the baseline scenario for the crypto market looks like nervous sideways trading with a risk of further declines, rather than a confirmed reversal to the upside.

The main factor is not technical but event-driven: the US election today, followed by a series of macroeconomic releases leading up to Friday’s jobs report. Any move could quickly change direction.

Deep Dive

1. The market remains in defensive mode

The total crypto market capitalization stands at $2.58 trillion, down 3.51% over the past 7 days and 10.07% over 30 days. The Fear and Greed Index is at 34, in the fear zone, versus 45 a week ago.

Bitcoin dominates with a 59.96% share, while the share of altcoins excluding ETH declined over the past 24 hours. The Altcoin Season Index has fallen to 46 and is down over both 7-day and 30-day periods. This points to a lack of broad risk appetite: if a rebound emerges, it will most likely be concentrated in BTC at first, rather than spread evenly across altcoins.

2. A short-term rebound is possible, but positioning makes the market fragile

Open interest in crypto derivatives rose 27.28% in 24 hours to $365.82 billion, while the average funding rate climbed to +0.0091502%. Positive funding means longs are paying shorts, but after a decline this is not a bullish signal on its own: the market may simply have quickly built new positions in anticipation of a rebound.

BTC liquidations over the past 24 hours totaled $82.88 million, up 172.52% from the previous 24-hour period. Sharp moves in either direction are therefore possible today: first, a flush of crowded positions followed by a reversal, or continued selling if a negative headline emerges.

3. Key risk points for November 3–6

November 3: US election and JOLTS data release. The market will assess the potential makeup of Congress and its impact on crypto legislation.
November 4: ADP jobs report and ISM Services Index, as well as earnings reports from major technology companies.
November 5: Jobless claims and the Bank of England decision.
November 6: The week’s main macroeconomic test, the October US jobs report and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Weak jobs data could temporarily support risk assets by boosting expectations for looser policy, but an overly weak report would also heighten recession fears. Strong data could support the dollar and yields, which usually puts pressure on BTC and altcoins. The market is already bracing for conflicting signals, so the reaction to one indicator could quickly shift after the next.

4. Flows and the link with equities do not yet confirm a sustained reversal

Spot BTC ETF AUM fell from $105.73 billion to $102.75 billion from October 28 to November 3, while ETH ETF AUM was almost unchanged at $14.56 billion. This looks more like stabilization after outflows than a return of strong institutional demand.

Over the past 7 days, the crypto market had a high correlation with QQQ, at 0.95914, and SPY, at 0.93881, but data overlap was around 0.47, so the indicator should be interpreted as a directional signal rather than an exact relationship. Nasdaq-focused QQQ fell 4.4% over the same period, while SPY fell 1.72%.

More on the election, jobs report, rates, and the impact of weakness in the technology sector: a review of the week’s events and a calendar of key macro factors.

Bottom line: For today and the next few days, the balance of risks still favors high volatility and a cautious recovery, rather than a clear, sustained rally. The outlook would shift in favor of sustained growth if risk appetite, ETF flows, and derivatives market structure all improve after the election and Friday’s data, without a new spike in liquidations.