#BTC回调触及81000美元 Can Bitcoin withstand $80k? These data points are worth a look

Yesterday, Bitcoin briefly fell below $81k, nearly breaching the $80k round-number threshold. Derivatives market liquidations exceeded $1.16 billion over 24 hours, with $1 billion coming from longs.
Glassnode said in an October 7 report that the ratio of open interest to market capitalization for large-cap altcoins has reached its highest level since before the October 2025 crash. Leverage has piled up too heavily, so any price drop triggers cascading liquidations.
CryptoQuant data shows that short-term holders transferred more than 50k BTC to exchanges within 24 hours, of which 29.5k BTC were transferred at a loss, accounting for 59%—the worst level in four months. During the previous rise, holders were taking profits; now they are cutting losses.
The macro picture remains less than optimistic. The September FOMC minutes showed that most officials believed another rate hike might still be needed before the end of the year. The Fed will likely stay put in October, but expectations of a December hike remain.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently 5.305%, while Brent crude is at $104.87. High interest rates and high oil prices are therefore creating challenges for risk assets.
The ETFs that previously supported the market have also been looking weak recently. Bitcoin ETFs saw $484.9 million in net outflows on October 7, the largest since June 25. Ethereum ETFs saw $160.9 million in outflows, marking seven consecutive days of withdrawals and bringing the cumulative total to $569 million.
Analysts noted that when Bitcoin rose from $76k to $87k in mid-September, average daily ETF inflows were $341.7 million, but in the five trading days through October 6, that figure had fallen to just $35 million.
Even stranger, the U.S. government, which previously said it would not sell its coins, has also quietly begun to move. Related wallets transferred 9,261 BTC to CoinbPrime within two days, worth approximately $770 million, half of which came from assets recovered from the Bitf hack.
Although Trump's executive order states that seized Bitcoin should be placed in a strategic reserve and not sold, the timing of the transfers coincided with the price decline, naturally making the market nervous.
Galaxy also found 2,456 BTC from wallets that had not previously been identified as government holdings, suggesting that publicly available data on the government's Bitcoin holdings may be understated.
The ownership of those Bitf assets is also disputed, with some former customers engaged in litigation, so it remains uncertain who will ultimately receive them.
In addition, the Coinb premium also reveals the current attitude of overseas funds. CryptoQuant's CoinbPremium Gap fell to -$64, confirming weakness during U.S. trading hours.
Bitcoin is now stuck at $81k, a level with a number of identified buy walls. Whether it can hold will depend on how heavy the selling pressure becomes. If it breaks below, the liquidation cluster around $75k will be the next reference point.
On the macro front, CPI data will be released next Tuesday, October 14, while the FOMC meeting will take place again on October 27–28 at the end of the month. These event milestones will very likely affect the crypto market.

In terms of current market sentiment, the past two weeks have seen a rapid shift from doubt to conviction. The result of this shift has been a rapid increase in leverage, which has to some extent created market “reflexivity.”

We have simply reached the moment of “settling the bill.” Once the trend begins to reverse, however, we cannot brake immediately and may even have to absorb the impact of inertia.

As for whether it is time to discuss whether this small bull-market rally has ended, it may still take some time to play out. The events and data above could be catalysts that influence the short-term market, and are worth monitoring.$BTC