#OneGate见证计划 Will the crypto market replay 10-10? The data says so

On Wednesday, the crypto market fell across the board, with Bitcoin (BTC) dropping 1.7% to around $84,100 and Ethereum (ETH) declining 3.5%. Leveraged traders re-entered the market, resulting in $403.58 million worth of long positions being forcibly liquidated within one hour.
This sell-off has once again raised concerns about a repeat of 10-10.
However, the data shows that market leverage has recovered somewhat, while the selling pressure behind last October's crash no longer exists.

What looks the same?
The comparison mainly focuses on derivatives, because the October 10 crash was a leverage-driven market collapse. The rally before October 10 relied on borrowed funds rather than new buying, and nearly $17 billion worth of long positions were forcibly liquidated.
The same buildup is happening again. According to CoinGlass data, open interest (OI)—the total value of futures positions that have not yet been closed—increased 4.0% this week to 650,480 BTC; before October 10, the metric had risen 4.1% over five days.
Measured against market size, the change is limited. Bitcoin's open interest accounts for 3.2% of its market capitalization, compared with 3.7% before the crash. Ethereum's stands at 10.4%, close to the previous 11.3%. The total amount in dollar terms obscures this.
From October 10, 2025, to the eve of the mass liquidations through Wednesday, Bitcoin open interest fell 38.6% in dollar terms, but only 12.7% in BTC terms. Most of this gap was caused by Bitcoin's price decline.
In other words, in terms of scale, market leverage is almost back to its pre-10-10 level.
Market overview: Bitcoin open interest rises 4.0% in seven days
Response: Ethereum leverage returns to pre-crash levels Trap: Higher leverage turns a small pullback into forced liquidations

How is the crypto market different? The cost of this leverage is much lower. Funding rates reflect how crowded long positions are; they are small fees paid by bullish traders to maintain their positions. Before October 10, BTC and ETH funding rates on bn and Byb exceeded an annualized 8% on 18 of 32 trading days. This week, they broke above 8% on just one of 28 trading days and turned negative three times.
Deribit shows the same shift: Before October 10, BTC's daily funding rate was 26.9%, compared with just 7.1% this week.
Meanwhile, a key source of liquidity has shrunk sharply. According to CoinGecko data, Ethena's USDe—a dollar stablecoin backed by hedged derivatives trading—has contracted 66% to $4.99 billion. This trend is consistent with broader deleveraging since October.
Therefore, positions are growing, but few traders are willing to chase prices higher and hold them. This leaves fewer long positions vulnerable to a single dump.
Cooling-off period: Funding rates exceeded 8% on 1 of 28 trading days
Outflows: USDe supply has fallen 66% since October 10
The reality: Traders are not chasing rallies Why has the crypto market's sell-off remained relatively small? This difference was reflected in Wednesday's wave of long liquidations.
In the 24 hours through early Wednesday, $487.02 million worth of long positions were forcibly liquidated as Bitcoin fell 1.96%, equivalent to approximately $248 million in forced selling for every 1% decline. On October 10, the same measure amounted to around $2.2 billion for each 1% shock, approximately nine times higher. By comparison, ordinary bonds maturing in 2025 had a range of $157 million to $504 million for each 1% move.

Because forced selling was smaller, this sell-off looked more like a reset than a cascading collapse.
BTC is currently trading near $84,100, with support at $82,300 and resistance at $86,000.
However, if the price falls below $82,300 and funding rates return above 8%, the October 10 pattern could be repeated. A move back above $86,000 would confirm the start of a new correction.
Metric: $248 million liquidated for every 1% decline Support: $82,300, near the September 28 low
Trigger: Funding above 8% while open interest continues to rise
Analyst view: The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 27–28 will be the clearest near-term trigger. Another rate hike following the September hike could push bond yields higher and drive Bitcoin up to $82,300. If funding rates remain below 8% during this test, a chain reaction similar to 10-10 is unlikely$BTC