#布局本周交易 #每周来晒 Bitcoin is experiencing wide-range volatility, and the market needs a new catalyst to break out of the range

Market News
Macroeconomic pressure: The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.67%, while the 10-year yield climbed to 5.31%, both reaching their highest levels since 2002. Continued increases in long-term yields are suppressing risk-asset valuations. QCP Capital noted that elevated oil prices and rising interest rates are still weakening upside momentum.
Key event: The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its September FOMC meeting on October 8. The market-implied probability of another 25-basis-point hike in October has plunged from 70% a week ago to 18%, although expectations of a December hike remain. Uncertainty over the rate path is the core short-term variable. Marginal regulatory easing: The Federal Reserve officially revoked the restrictive policy introduced in 2023, allowing uninsured state member banks to apply on a case-by-case basis to conduct crypto-related business. The U.S. Treasury also withdrew its proposed monitoring rules for non-custodial wallets. The compliance environment has improved, but the short-term pricing impact is limited.
Supply-side pressure: Approximately $1.11 billion worth of tokens will be unlocked in the first week of October, including $340 million from Hyperliquid. Only about $15 million in replenishing funds has entered, creating structural selling pressure due to supply-demand asymmetry.
On-chain data shows bullish signals: Glassnode data shows that the trend of BTC whales making net deposits to exchanges ended in late August, after which flows shifted to sustained net outflows. The deposit trend had lasted for more than three months, twice the duration of similar trends since 2023, indicating that whale selling pressure has materially eased.
Demand recovery: The 30-day apparent demand indicator has recovered from -182000 BTC to -101000 BTC, indicating that spot demand is recovering but remains in net contraction territory.
Holdings structure: Wallets holding 10–10000 BTC have accumulated 41025 coins over the past 10 days, bringing their total holdings to 13.64 million coins, or 67.93% of total supply. Mid-term holdings continue to concentrate in stronger hands.
Technical analysis: BTC is maintaining narrow-range volatility between $85000 and $87000, with the price above the 200-day moving average ($80625) and the Ichimoku cloud ($84864–$85417). The medium-term structure remains bullish.
However, the RSI stands at 60.74, nearing overbought territory, while MACD momentum is weakening and clear price rejection has emerged around $87363.
Since September 21, BTC has unsuccessfully tested the yearly opening price of $87570 four times, making this level a strong psychological resistance. A decisive break above $87400 would target $93700, while a break below $82500 could lead to a retest of $80000.
BTC is caught between macro interest-rate pressure and improving on-chain holdings. Its short-term direction depends on the wording of the October 8 FOMC minutes. ETH’s short-term catalyst is concentrated around the launch of the Glamsterdam testnet, but extremely low volatility suggests that a directional move is approaching.
Bitcoin has now entered wide-range consolidation, with a broad range of 82500--87400. In the short term, the 4-hour chart shows that it is basically trading above the middle band, which is also around 85000. The lower band is 84000, and the upper band is 86500.
There is currently no news-driven stimulus, so the market may continue consolidating for some time. Watch these levels for trading. Consider long positions around 84000 and short positions around 86500. $BTC