##美国9月非农新增2.9万 September Nonfarm Payrolls: Employment Trends Shift Abruptly, Policy Course Hard to Change

U.S. nonfarm payroll growth in September fell far short of expectations, while data for the previous two months were revised down simultaneously, showing cooling hiring momentum as the labor market continued to exhibit the characteristics of “low hiring and low layoffs.”
September nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, significantly below the market expectation of 90,000, while total job growth for July and August was revised down by 60,000, reflecting a continued weakening in companies’ willingness to hire.
By sector, private-sector employment continued to post modest growth, but healthcare hiring slowed, while employment in finance, information, and professional and business services continued to contract, with pressure on white-collar jobs beginning to emerge.
The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, mainly because labor supply expanded faster than employment absorption. The labor force increased by 485,000 in September, with 406,000 moving into employment and 78,000 entering unemployment; the rise in unemployment came more from new entrants and reentrants to the labor market than from an increase in corporate layoffs.

After the data were released, the risk of an October rate hike declined, U.S. Treasuries strengthened, and stocks and gold rebounded. According to Fed Watch, the probability of an October rate hike quickly fell to 19% after the data release. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to around 5.20%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose by approximately 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively; spot gold briefly rose by around $40.

Regarding subsequent monetary policy, we believe the probability of another rate hike this year is declining, but not because of the simplistic logic that “weak payrolls mean rate hikes will stop.” In “Stop Fantasizing and Recognize ‘Warsh,’” we previously pointed out that Warsh’s policy assessment focuses more on inflation trends and sustained changes in the labor market than on fluctuations in a single month’s data. At the September FOMC meeting, the backdrop to his reinforced hawkish stance was that indicators such as PCE inflation and inflation expectations still showed upward pressure, while the credibility of anti-inflation policy still needed to be maintained. Therefore, weak payrolls are more likely to change short-term rate-hike expectations than to alter his policy framework; only when labor-market cooling persists and a downward trend in inflation is confirmed may the Federal Reserve further adjust its policy stance.

The scope for one more rate hike this year is being constrained mainly by easing inflationary pressures and the renewed stabilization of policy expectations. On the one hand, the energy shock has eased marginally, reducing the risk of a second rise in inflation. Europe recently discussed releasing diesel reserves, while the U.S. also called for increased diesel supplies, somewhat easing energy supply pressures; if oil prices continue to fall, the upward impact of energy on inflation will weaken. On the other hand, tensions within the Fed have eased somewhat, reducing the necessity of further rate hikes. New York Fed President Williams recently said that there was no need to rush policy adjustments; Fed governors also sent dovish signals, stressing that subsequent decisions would need to take changes in the data into account. After hawkish expectations were fully priced in, market concerns about another rate hike in the near term eased somewhat. #每周来晒