#美国9月非农新增2.9万
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Nonfarm payrolls deliver a major downside surprise, adding only 29k; the crypto market sees a “liquidity dawn”

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29k in September, far below the expected 90k, while the previous two months’ figures were revised down by a combined 60k. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data was released, BTC briefly surged to $87,000, with its intraday gain exceeding 3% at one point, triggering large-scale liquidations of short positions.

The core logic is that weak employment data has significantly reduced the urgency for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates. The probability of rates remaining unchanged in October has surged to 83%, while the probability of a rate hike has plunged from over 60% a week ago to 17%. Easing rate pressure directly improves the liquidity environment for risk assets, providing a short-term boost to the highly rate-sensitive crypto market.

However, two points warrant caution: first, if trading volume fails to continue expanding in the $86,000–$87,000 range, profit-taking may emerge; second, monthly data is highly noisy, and if inflation remains stubborn, rate-hike expectations could reignite at any time.

For BTC, the real confirmation signal will come from whether the price can hold its gains and whether ETF inflows return, rather than from this single data point itself. Rising rate-cut expectations are a tailwind, but sustained spot buying is the key to a lasting advance. $BTC