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Let’s talk through the chart. $AVAX This daily chart rose from 5.67 in mid-September all the way to 12.007, then started moving sideways. It’s now at 11.037, and the gainers list shows a 59% increase over the past month—pretty impressive. But look closely at the candlesticks: the past few days have all had small bodies and especially long upper wicks—the bulls have tried twice to break through 11.27 but failed. The moving averages are in a flawless bullish alignment, with the 7/25/99/200 all supporting from below. The structure does look good.



But the problem is that the macro picture is still unbalanced. The 10-year US Treasury yield is still hovering above 5.2%. With Treasuries offering a risk-free 5% yield, who wants to take risks in crypto? Bitcoin itself has been grinding back and forth between $84,000 and $87,000, unable to break higher or lower. Without BTC leading the charge, it’s difficult for altcoins to stage an independent rally.

That said, AVAX does have several cards that other public chains lack. Goldman Sachs’ $100 billion Treasury fund runs on Avalanche through Lynq, while SEC-registered brokerage tZERO handles settlement. This isn’t just narrative hype—the institutional channel is already operating with real money. The market cap of tokenized stocks increased by $246 million in September, the largest gain across all chains. The Helicon upgrade reduced the staking unlock period from 14 days to 48 hours, greatly improving the flexibility of institutional capital inflows and outflows. These are the real forces behind this move from $8 to $12, rather than simply following BTC.
On the trading side, my view is straightforward:

11.27 is the dividing line. If the daily candle closes above it on strong volume, the next targets are 12.5–13, with the upper Bollinger Band waiting there. If it continues grinding sideways, don’t chase blindly—wait for a pullback into the 10.5–10.8 range before considering an entry. Set the stop-loss at 10.04, the SMA20. If it breaks, admit you’re wrong and exit—don’t stubbornly hold.

#AVAX With a current market cap of $490 million versus SOL’s $70 billion, the upside elasticity is indeed high, but it can also get hammered just as hard in the other direction. Don’t get carried away; manage your position size carefully.
#比特币冲击8.7万美元遇阻回落
#美国9月非农新增2.9万 .
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AVAXAVAX-5.69%
BTCBTC-1.33%
SOLSOL-3.58%

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Furuixianghe
2026-10-05
With a 5.2% risk-free yield on the table, even the strongest crypto narrative has to bow.
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LuZiming
2026-10-05
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………牛
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Yoojiinn
2026-10-05
Paying Close Attention🔍
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EquityMindset
2026-10-05
With a 5.2% risk-free return on the table, even the strongest crypto narrative has to bow down.
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Salamcryptobro
2026-10-04
Solid bot execution on $NVDA. Very bullish
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XinfeiFaye
2026-10-04
Go long or short?
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XiaoYuxin
2026-10-04
Learned a new approach! 💡
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TxCollector
2026-10-04
Helicon’s 48-hour unlock after the upgrade—good catch; liquidity is exactly what institutions want.
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StarrySkyEarnsOneHundred
2026-10-04
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LiquidityMaker
2026-10-04
A market cap of 490 million versus 70 billion: volatility is a double-edged sword—it rises fast but falls just as hard.
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