#美国9月非农新增2.9万
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📊 September NFP: the labor market is cooling, while attention shifts to the Fed and BTC.
$BTC

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The September US employment report came in weaker than market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by just 29,000, while around 90,000 new jobs had been expected. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. To me, this is an important signal, as the labor market is gradually losing its former strength. At the same time, the data do not look like a sharp deterioration in the economic situation. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. This is also important, as restrained wage growth could reduce inflationary pressure. That is why I am currently looking not at a single figure, but at the entire picture together.

1️⃣ What interests me most going forward? Of course, the reassessment of expectations for Fed interest rates remains very important. After such a weak NFP, the market almost immediately began lowering expectations for a rate hike at the October meeting. The probability of an October hike initially fell to around 12%, then rose to approximately 21–23%. In other words, the market still does not completely rule out a more hawkish scenario, but the September report clearly does not give it additional arguments. In addition, the July data were revised from +21,000 to -10,000, while the August figures were revised from 162,000 to 133,000. As a result, the employment estimate for those two months was cut by a combined 60,000 jobs. For me, this is another reason to closely monitor the Fed's next statements.

I like the fact that this report also has a side that is positive for risk assets. Monthly wages rose by just 0.1%, while annual growth was 3.0%. At the same time, the labor force participation rate rose to 61.8%, and the number of employed people increased by 406,000 according to the household survey. In other words, the rise in unemployment to 4.2% is partly related to an increase in the number of people in the labor force, rather than solely to falling employment. I consider this point important for properly assessing the situation. The labor market is cooling, but so far it is not showing signs of a sharp collapse. Therefore, to me this is more a signal of gradual slowing than a reason for panic.

2️⃣ And what could BTC and the crypto market do next? Here, I am more interested in the continuation of the reaction than in the first wave after the release. A weaker labor market reduces the arguments in favor of a more aggressive Fed policy, which could support interest in risk assets. After the report was released, S&P 500 futures rose by approximately 0.8%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.2%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds declined, and the dollar also weakened. For Bitcoin, this macro picture looks interesting, especially if expectations of a more dovish policy persist. I think BTC could receive additional momentum if the market begins pricing in more favorable liquidity conditions. But it is important to me to see this on the chart itself, rather than simply draw a conclusion from the news. In my view, Bitcoin is still moving sideways, so I am calmly waiting for confirmation of a move.

3️⃣ What trading ideas am I tracking? My main asset right now is Bitcoin, and I want to buy BTC at a clear entry point. I do not want to buy simply because the NFP came in weak. It is much more interesting to me if, after the initial reaction, the price shows strength and begins breaking out of the sideways range. Recently, I had two trades: one closed in profit, while the other closed at a loss. But I am not stopping because of one unsuccessful trade and am continuing to work. On the contrary, I now want to select entry points more carefully and watch the price reaction after important macro data. If BTC shows a confident upward move, I will consider buying. For now, I am observing, analyzing, and waiting for the moment when the market itself shows the direction.

Overall, I view today's report as moderately positive specifically for risk assets. 29,000 new jobs versus the expected 90,000 is a significant deviation from the forecast. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, while annual wage growth slowed to 3.0%. At the same time, the previous data for July and August were revised down by another 60,000 jobs. All of this is forcing the market to reassess the Fed's future moves more carefully. For Bitcoin, I see an interesting situation if rate expectations continue to become more dovish. I like the possibility of seeing BTC break out of its sideways range after such macroeconomic support. Therefore, I am not rushing right now, but remain constructive and continue looking for my entry point.

💬 And what interests you most right now? Will the next step be a new reassessment of expectations for the Fed's rate, or will the main focus shift directly to BTC? Personally, I am watching both factors, but I most want to see Bitcoin's reaction. If the price confirms strength and breaks out of its sideways movement, that will be much more interesting to me than the weak NFP itself. For now, my position is simple: I am observing, analyzing, and preparing to buy BTC. One winning trade and one losing trade are already history, and many more opportunities lie ahead. The main thing is not to rush and to wait for a clear signal. And, as always, the market will show everything on the chart. 📈

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