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🔥 Hot topic of the week.

Today, October 2, 2026, the latest US nonfarm payrolls report was published. September's data turned out to be significantly weaker than market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000, while economists expected around 90,000. August's revised increase was 133,000, compared with the previously reported 162,000. The July figure was also revised downward, from +21,000 to -10,000 jobs. Thus, the combined July and August figures were lowered by another 60,000 jobs. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2% in September, although it has remained within the narrow range of 4.1–4.3% since March. Average hourly earnings increased by only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year, also pointing to moderate wage growth.

1️⃣ Will this data change expectations regarding the Fed's next steps? In my opinion, yes, and quite noticeably, since the report was weaker than expected across practically all key indicators. Instead of the projected 90,000 new jobs, the economy added only 29,000. Unemployment was also higher than forecast, at 4.2% versus the expected 4.1%. Another factor was the negative revisions to previous months, as the July figure was changed from +21,000 to -10,000, while the August figure was revised from 162,000 to 133,000. At the same time, average hourly earnings rose by only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. This is important for the Fed, since weaker employment growth together with more moderate wage growth reduces some of the pressure from the labor market. After the data was released, the market significantly lowered expectations for a rate hike at the October meeting. According to Reuters, the probability of a rate hike this month fell to approximately 12%.

2️⃣ How might cryptocurrencies and US stocks react in the short term? The reaction has already partially emerged following the release of the report. Weaker employment data initially supported the stock market, as it reduced expectations of further Fed policy tightening. S&P 500 futures rose by approximately 0.9% after the release, while Nasdaq futures gained approximately 1%. The yield on 2-year Treasury bonds fell by 7 basis points to 4.716%, while the yield on 10-year bonds declined by 6 basis points to 5.176%. The dollar index also fell by approximately 0.2% to 101.79. For Bitcoin, this macro market reaction may generally be positive, as weaker rate expectations reduce pressure on risk assets. But I would not rush to call this the beginning of a new strong BTC move. In my opinion, Bitcoin is currently moving more sideways, so the subsequent price reaction will be more important to me.

Another important point is that the report itself does not look like a complete collapse of the US labor market. The BLS noted that employment in all major industries changed little in September. The healthcare sector added 17,000 jobs, although this was below the average increase of 33,000 over the previous 12 months. Employment in construction increased by 11,000, while the financial sector lost 7,000 jobs. The number of long-term unemployed remained at approximately 1.9 million people. The labor force participation rate was 61.8%, while the employment-population ratio was 59.2%. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons was approximately 4.5 million. Therefore, I view these figures as a signal of a noticeable cooling in the pace of hiring, but not as evidence of a sharp deterioration in the labor market.

For the crypto market, Bitcoin's reaction to this change in macro expectations is particularly interesting right now. A weaker NFP usually increases attention on the possibility of Fed policy easing. At the same time, investors look not only at the number of new jobs, but also at wages, unemployment, and revisions to previous data. In this report, several indicators were weaker than expected at once. 29,000 new jobs versus a forecast of 90,000 is a very substantial difference. Unemployment at 4.2% also exceeded the 4.1% forecast. Annual average hourly earnings growth was 3.0%, while the market expected approximately 3.2%. It is precisely the combination of these factors that is currently creating a more dovish signal for Fed expectations. But Bitcoin still needs to confirm this scenario through its own price action.

3️⃣ What trading opportunities are you watching right now? First of all, I am watching Bitcoin and trying to understand whether it can break out of its current sideways movement. After macroeconomic news like this, I do not want to open a trade simply because of the first strong candle. It is important for me to see whether the move will continue after the market's initial reaction. If BTC remains in the same range, I would rather wait for a clearer signal. If the price shows a confident breakout from the sideways range and holds above an important level, then it may be possible to consider buying. I do want to buy Bitcoin, but right now it is more important for me to find a proper entry point. Recently, I had two trades: one closed in profit, while the other closed at a loss. Nevertheless, I continue working, analyzing my entries, and waiting for the next opportunity.

Overall, I view today's report as a fairly dovish signal for the market. 29,000 new jobs versus the expected 90,000 is the main figure in this report. Unemployment rose to 4.2%, while wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-over-year. In addition, the revisions to July and August lowered the previous employment estimate by another 60,000 jobs. These factors weaken the arguments in favor of immediate Fed policy tightening. At the same time, the labor market does not appear to have suddenly entered a crisis. Therefore, I do not currently expect Bitcoin to make an immediate vertical move solely because of this report. My main scenario remains simple for now: BTC is moving sideways, while I observe and look for a good buying opportunity. I will watch what the market shows next and work with the information provided by price.

💬 What is your assessment of today's data? Do you believe that 29,000 new jobs are enough to change expectations regarding the Fed? How do you assess the rise in unemployment to 4.2% and wage growth of 3.0% year-over-year? And most importantly, will Bitcoin be able to use the weaker report to break out of its sideways range? For now, I am watching BTC and am not rushing into a new trade. After one profitable trade and one losing trade, I want to wait for a clearer situation. What matters to me now is not emotions, but a concrete signal from price. If Bitcoin shows a strong move, I will make a decision then. For now, I will continue monitoring the market and looking for my entry point.

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