What is truly worth watching in the U.S. September nonfarm payrolls report is not just the number of new jobs, but whether it changes the market’s pricing logic for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. The market previously expected September nonfarm payrolls to increase by about 90k, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%, while August nonfarm payrolls had reached 162k.

If actual employment is significantly higher than expected while wage growth remains relatively strong, the market may once again worry that “the economy is too resilient,” leaving the Fed without sufficient reason to quickly shift toward easing. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields could gain support. Conversely, if employment is significantly below expectations and the unemployment rate rises, the market may resume trading on an economic-cooling narrative, reducing bets on further policy tightening and potentially giving risk assets some breathing room.
Interestingly, the market is not simply following the pattern of “strong payrolls = stocks rise, weak payrolls = stocks fall.” Employment that is too strong means interest rates could stay higher, while employment that is too weak could make investors worry about a recession. So the most comfortable scenario is actually moderate cooling in employment without a sudden shutdown.
For BTC, this “soft landing” combination could be more favorable. With moderate data, reduced pressure from the dollar, and no further surge in rate expectations, risk appetite could return. BTC had already briefly broken above around $86.8k before the data release, showing that the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic data. #ShareWeekly and use #NonfarmPayrolls,
Therefore, in short-term trading, do not focus only on the payrolls figure. It is better to also watch the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and whether BTC’s first surge or plunge can continue. The data creates volatility, while market sentiment amplifies it. The real opportunities are often hidden after the first “scary move.” $MU