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$BTC closed Q3 up 43%, marking its second-best third quarter on record, but the more interesting part is what happened underneath the move.
Open interest sits near a yearly low at $382B, down 12% for the month, while spot ETF AUM climbed from $100B to $111B.
That tells a different story from previous rallies: spot demand is driving the move while excess leverage has been flushed out.
Last October showed what crowded positioning can do, with roughly $19B in liquidations during the major selloff. This time, $BTC enters October with far less leverage and around $2.4B in weekly ETF inflows.
Technically, $87.3K is the key eight-month high. A clean break could put $90K in focus, with the next major psychological target around $100K.
Bitcoin has averaged roughly 19% gains in October historically. From $84K, that would put BTC near $100K.
History isn't a guarantee, but the market structure entering October looks very different.