#OneGate见证计划 The altcoin season index is nearing 75! During the 7-day National Day holiday, will the crypto market see a second wave of celebration, or reach a short-term top?

The crypto market has experienced rotation recently: BTC has remained strong, ETH and SOL have risen, and altcoins have begun to catch up.
Especially over the past two weeks: Stimulated by the SEC innovation exemption news, UNI surged about 40%ARB, RAY, AR, and several other sectors rose by more than 20%. The altcoin season index rapidly climbed, reaching as high as 74, very close to the “altcoin season confirmation line” of 75. Judging from sentiment indicators, the market has clearly entered a stage of rising risk appetite.
But one question has emerged: Does the altcoin season index nearing overheated levels mean the market is already approaching a top?
My view: The market may enter a period of consolidation or even divergence in the short term, but it does not currently look like a bull-market top.
The reason is that a true major bull-market top is usually accompanied by: mass mania, a large influx of new users, junk coins surging across the board, extreme expansion of high leverage, and media coverage of financial freedom everywhere. The current market is more characterized by: institutional funds driving the market, BTC dominance remaining relatively high, capital concentrated in a few strong-narrative altcoins, and rotation only just beginning. Therefore: this is not a bull-market top, but more like a release of risk appetite during the middle stage of a bull market.

01 Altcoin season index: What does nearing 75 mean? Looking at the CoinGlass altcoin season index: the current index is around 62, while the highest level a few days ago was: 74, just one step away from 75.
Historically: below 25:
BTC stage 25–50: BTC leads, with some altcoins catching up
50–75: Altcoin rotation stage
Above 75: Full altcoin season begins. The current level is actually in: the acceleration zone after the start of altcoin season.
But note: A rising index does not mean that every altcoin has an opportunity.
The future is more likely to unfold as follows:
Stage one: Strong narratives rise, such as: RWA, DeFi, AI+Crypto, DePIN, Layer2
Stage two: Capital spreads, such as: second-tier protocols and small-cap projects rising.
Stage three: Junk-coin mania
The current market is closer to: the transition from stage one to stage two.

02 Why might short-term narratives struggle to take over?
The biggest driver over the past week was not simply a technical breakout.
It was: policy catalysts + the repricing of new narratives. For example: the SEC innovation exemption prompted the market to imagine anew: tokenization → securities on-chain → on-chain trading → DEX liquidity → UNI, RAY, and other beneficiaries. This is a complete industry chain.
But the problem is that the market has already begun trading this expectation.
The first batch: UNI, ONDO, and the SOL ecosystem have already attracted capital.
The next step requires: new catalysts to continue driving the market. Otherwise, the market could easily see: news-driven surge → short-term funds take profits → hot sectors cool down → waiting for the next narrative. Therefore, the biggest feature of the 7-day National Day holiday may be: upside remains, but the market will not simply replicate the broad surge of the past few days.

03 7-day National Day holiday market scenarios
Scenario one: Bullish trend (lower probability) Conditions: BTC holds key levels, US Treasury yields decline, the market continues trading tokenization/RWA, and ETF inflows continue.
Trend: BTC consolidates upward → ETH and SOL continue catching up → RWA, DeFi, and AI sectors continue rotating.
Possible development: UNI, ONDO, LINK, and the SOL ecosystem rise for a second time.
Feature: This is not a broad altcoin season. Instead: strong-narrative assets continue attracting capital.
Scenario two: Consolidation and digestion
This is currently the more likely scenario. The reason is that the altcoin season index is already near a high level. Short-term funds have taken significant profits.
During the National Day holiday: Trading volume in Europe and the US will decline, some funds will be on holiday, and large funds will wait for the October FOMC.
Possible trend: BTC consolidates at high levels, ETH and SOL outperform BTC, and rotation takes place within the altcoin market. A coin that rises 20% today may correct 10%–15%. However, coins with strong trends may continue rising after the correction.
This is: healthy rotation during a bull market.
Scenario three: Black swan correction, which requires close attention.
Possible sources:
1. Federal Reserve policy. The biggest variable in the market currently is: Will rates be raised again in October? Market expectations for an October rate hike have fluctuated recently. Some market data shows that as inflation data came in below expectations and Fed officials signaled caution, the probability of another rate hike in October has declined; however, some institutions still believe inflationary pressure could lead to further tightening. If the Fed remains hawkish in October, this could result in: a stronger dollar → tighter liquidity → pressure on risk assets → a short-term Crypto correction.
2. Policy and regulatory risks
Over the next three months, focus on:
United States: the Crypto market structure bill, stablecoin regulation, and subsequent SEC rulemaking. If policy progresses smoothly: bullish.
If there are: delays, disagreements, or regulatory conflicts, the market may cool in the short term.
3. Leverage risk
The market has just experienced a rapid rise in altcoins. Watch: perpetual futures funding rates, open interest, and liquidation volumes.
If: prices rise while leverage increases rapidly. This could easily lead to: a rapid liquidation event.

04 Over the next three months, focus on three variables
Variable 1: Will tokenization continue to spread?
Currently: SEC policy → ONDO → DTCC → institutional assets. This direction has already formed a trend. For a truly major market move in the future, we need to see clear action from traditional financial institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and JPMorgan.
Variable 2: Will altcoin capital expand?
The key is not how much BTC rises. It is whether, after BTC rises, capital flows into: ETH, SOL, DeFi, AI, and RWA.
If only BTC rises: risk appetite is insufficient.
If: BTC stabilizes → ETH and SOL rise → altcoins spread → that is a true altcoin season.
Variable 3: Will liquidity improve?
The core of a Crypto bull market is not stories, but money. Focus on: Federal Reserve policy, US Treasury yields, the dollar index, and ETF flows.

05 My National Day holiday trading strategy
Given the current environment, I will not:
❌ Go all-in chasing gains
❌ Panic-sell because the altcoin index is nearing 75
❌ Immediately chase a coin after seeing others rise 20%–40%. A more reasonable strategy is:
First: Retain core positions in BTC, ETH, and high-quality public chains.
Second: Look for pullback opportunities in strong narratives. Focus on: RWA: ONDO, LINK, SOL. DeFi: UNI, AAVE. Solana ecosystem: RAY.
Third: Set event-trading rules.
If there is: policy confirmation → a rise in leading assets → sector expansion → increased trading volume, participation is possible. If chasing after a single coin surges 50%, the risk-reward ratio declines.

06 Final summary
The current market is not at the end of the bull market, but it is also not a mindless frenzy.
It looks more like: the second stage of a bull market, with capital spreading from BTC into strong-narrative altcoins. The altcoin season index nearing 75 is an important signal: it shows that market risk appetite is rising.
But over the next three months: what truly determines the market’s upside is not sentiment, but:
1. Whether Federal Reserve policy shifts
2. Whether tokenization/RWA continues to gain institutional validation
3. Whether altcoin capital forms sustained rotation

During the 7-day National Day holiday, the more likely outcome is high-level consolidation and hot-sector rotation, rather than a broad frenzy.
The biggest opportunities may not necessarily come from chasing gains, but from: identifying in advance the next industry trend that has not been fully priced in. This is also why the current focus is on: tokenization → RWA → DeFi → on-chain financial infrastructure. #每周来晒