#美国30年期国债收益率2002年以来新高 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surges to 5.60%, highest since 2002: when this “anchor of asset pricing” shakes, global wealth must adjust along with it

If global financial markets were to choose the “most expensive price tag,” many would point to long-term U.S. Treasury yields—they are known as the “anchor of global asset pricing” because they largely determine the “risk-free floor” for everything from mortgages and corporate bonds to all risk assets.

The latest data caused this anchor to shake: On September 29, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly rose to 5.595%, then climbed further to 5.60% late in the session, reaching its highest level since 2002. Behind this is the continued global tightening cycle.

As energy prices rise and inflationary pressures resurface, markets are continually raising their expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.

More importantly, the yield curve is flattening at an accelerating pace: The spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries, once nearly 75 basis points, has now narrowed to only about 21 basis points.

Historically, an inverted yield curve has been called a “recession signal light”—the yield curve inverted before all of the past nine U.S. recessions.

However, this signal is not always reliable. The sustained inversion from 2022 to 2024 did not bring about a corresponding recession and was viewed by the market as a “false alarm.”

Professionals are more inclined to treat it as an early warning rather than confirmation: What really needs watching are the financial conditions behind the curve—persistently high interest rates will continue to raise corporate financing costs and amplify volatility in globally overvalued assets.

Meanwhile, the OECD’s latest outlook raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 2.9%, and the resilience of the world economy amid headwinds remains impossible to underestimate$NAS100