#美国30年期国债收益率2002年以来新高 5.6% U.S. Treasury yields: the “interest-rate trial” for U.S. fiscal policy has begun 📉

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.62% intraday, its highest since June 2002, rising for six straight days—this is no longer an ordinary technical pullback, but a structural sell-off driven by the convergence of four forces: inflation + rate hikes + fiscal deficits + massive supply. At its core, the market is repricing the “sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy”: $40 trillion in debt, a $2 trillion annual deficit, and interest expenses surpassing defense spending for the first time. Long-term capital is beginning to demand a higher “risk premium.”
Barclays even believes that “fair value could reach 6%.” For risk assets (U.S. stocks, crypto, and gold), this is a sword hanging over all high-valuation assets—BTC’s $82K lifeline is the “thermometer” of this storm.

I. Why it hit a 24-year high: four drivers
Inflation expectations heating up: high energy prices + sticky core PCE at 3.3%—if inflation does not come down, no one will dare buy long-term bonds
Rate-hike cycle restarting: the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 bp in September, while the probability of a hike in October temporarily reached 70%—as the short end moves higher, the long end is forced to follow
Fiscal sustainability (the core and most dangerous issue): federal debt has exceeded $40 trillion, the annual deficit is approaching $2 trillion, and net interest payments on Treasuries have surpassed defense spending for the first time; low-rate debt coming due must be refinanced and reissued at higher rates—investors are becoming “increasingly impatient with fiscal profligacy”
Massive supply: AI capital expenditure is driving substantial issuance of long-duration corporate bonds + the Treasury is issuing debt at massive scale—as the amount of debt increases, prices naturally fall

II. How this sell-off differs from the past: fiscal policy carries more weight
The rise in yields in 2023 was driven by “a strong economy + rate hikes” and was cyclical; this round is led by fiscal deficits + supply pressure, with the “term premium” demanded by investors undergoing a systematic repricing—this is structural. That is why Barclays says “the market still assumes that the neutral rate is cyclical rather than structural”—if long-term Treasury yields are structural, 5.6% may only be the starting point. Another danger signal: a synchronized sell-off across global bond markets (Japan’s 10-year government bond yield broke above 3% intraday, hitting a 30-year high)—this is a global “interest-rate reset,” not an issue confined to the United States.

III. Transmission chain: who gets hurt and who benefits
Losers: U.S. stocks (the three major indexes closed lower today, with high valuations—especially AI hardware—being compressed), crypto (BTC’s break below $84K on 9/24 was a direct result of the new high in Treasury yields—BTC’s $82K and DOGE’s $0.085 stop-loss levels are essentially part of this transmission chain), and gold (supported by safe-haven demand, but facing opposing pressure from interest rates)
Beneficiaries: bonds themselves (new buyers receive higher yields), and the U.S. dollar

IV. Is this a “crisis” or an “adjustment”?
Current assessment: a deep adjustment, not yet a crisis. Three points will determine whether it escalates:
① Whether the Treasury is forced to intervene (its earlier expansion of buybacks was criticized as “a drop in the bucket”);
② Whether the October FOMC confirms a rate hike;
③ The pace of supply.

Remember the 2022 U.K. pension crisis and Silicon Valley Bank in 2023—every new historical high in the “interest-rate reset” era could become the spark that ignites a certain “vulnerable link.” In this storm, surviving is more important than making money—reduce leverage, honor stop-losses, and keep cash on hand until the storm passes.