#Marvell涨4.5% Today was a typical divergence day for U.S. stocks: “the broader market fell while AI hardware rose”—the three major indexes closed slightly lower, but the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 1.32%, Marvell rose 4.5%, optical communications company Lumentum gained 5%, Applied Materials rose 5%, and ARM/Meta/Coherent gained more than 3%.
The nature of this AI hardware rally has changed: it has entered the second stage of “full supply-chain expansion” from “Nvidia standing alone” (memory, optical communications, custom chips, and equipment are all rising together)—a characteristic of the main upward phase, but also one that means valuations are beginning to rise across the board, making stock selection more difficult.
In the short term, Micron’s earnings report (after market close tonight) will be the “touchstone” for this rally.

I. Why AI hardware rose against the trend today: three drivers
Driver 1: Rising expectations for Micron’s earnings report (memory pricing power). Micron will release its earnings after market close tonight, and all seven investment banks are bullish—the memory/HBM segment has the “highest certainty” in AI hardware, prompting funds to move in early. Micron’s 1% gain and SK hynix’s 2% gain today were a preview.
Driver 2: Expectations for Marvell’s “Analyst Day” (custom chips). The direct reason for Marvell’s 4.5% rise is that its October 6 Analyst Day is approaching—the market expects the company to provide growth guidance for AI custom chips (Chiplet/interconnects) and break through the psychological $250 threshold in one move. Marvell has risen 210% year to date and is a core name in the “custom ASIC + data-center interconnect” sector.
Driver 3: New demand-side data (Anthropic×SpaceX).
Pre-market news: The computing-power agreement between Anthropic and SpaceX is worth up to $84.5 billion, nearly double the amount previously disclosed—“AI companies buying computing power” has received another major order, directly supporting valuations across the entire hardware chain.

II. The essence of this rally: entering the “expansion phase”

A comparison makes it clear that the market has entered a new phase:
Stage 1 (July-August): Nvidia rose alone, AI = GPU
​Stage 2 (now): optical communications (Lumentum/Coherent/Ciena), memory (Micron/SK hynix/SanDisk), custom chips (Marvell/Broadcom), equipment (Applied Materials/ASML), Meta (AI applications)—the entire supply chain is rising broadly

The “expansion phase” has two implications:
1. A healthy bull-market signal: Funds are moving from “leaders” to “shovel sellers,” indicating that the AI narrative has shifted from “concept” to “orders being fulfilled across the entire supply chain”—more solid than betting solely on Nvidia
​2. A risk signal: When “catch-up stocks” (glass companies such as Corning) also begin surging, the rally often enters its middle-to-late stages—the current market is starting to feel like “everyone is an AI stock”

III. Three risks to watch closely
Risk 1: There is little room for disappointment with Marvell. “Valuations have left little room for disappointment”—MRVL is up 210% year to date, and if the guidance at the October 6 Analyst Day is lackluster, the pullback will be very fast.
Risk 2: Micron’s earnings are a “known event.” A unanimous bullish view among investment banks means expectations are fully priced in—meeting expectations in tonight’s earnings report would merely be “passing,” while missing expectations would mean a “double hit”; it will determine the near-term direction of the entire memory sector, and even AI hardware.
Risk 3: The macro factors remain. Although the market has lowered expectations for an October rate hike (after the data), elevated U.S. Treasury yields and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report have not disappeared—AI hardware’s high valuations are most vulnerable to rising interest rates.$MRVL