#WeeklyTradeShare
#ShareMyFuturesReturn

I will also be watching PCE and NFP most closely, because these data could significantly affect expectations for Fed rates. August PCE will be released on September 30, while the September employment report will be released on October 2. For me, this is more important than short-term moves in individual stocks. The market is currently very sensitive to any changes in forecasts for future Fed policy. If inflation remains persistent, there may be less room for rapid policy easing. If the labor market shows unexpected strength, rate expectations could also change. That is why I am looking at these two reports together rather than separately. My current market outlook remains bearish and quite cautious.

What exactly I want to see in the latest data:
1) PCE — whether inflation continues to gradually decline;
2) core PCE — how persistent underlying price pressures remain;
3) NFP — whether the US labor market is retaining sufficient strength;
4) wages — whether they are creating additional inflationary pressure.
In August, average hourly earnings rose 0.3 % month over month and 3.1 % year over year. For me, this shows that the labor market situation does not yet look unequivocally weak. At the same time, the combination of inflation and employment could give the market a clearer signal. If both indicators come in stronger than expected, I see a risk of additional pressure on risk assets. If the data are weaker, the reaction could be completely different. Therefore, before the data are released, I do not want to make overly aggressive bets on a single scenario.

My bearish scenario is simple: strong PCE plus strong NFP could make traders take a more cautious view of the pace of further rate cuts. In such a situation, bond yields could receive support, while stocks and other risk assets could face additional pressure. But I do not believe that one report will automatically determine the direction of the entire market. It will be important to look not only at the headline number but also at the details within the report. Wage growth, the unemployment rate, and revisions to previous data will be of particular interest. In the August BLS report, preliminary employment estimates for June and July were revised upward by a combined 55,000. Therefore, I will also take possible revisions into account, rather than looking only at the headline NFP figure. For me, this will be an important test of the current market sentiment.

From a trading perspective, I do not want to open a position right before the data are released. My idea is to first wait for PCE, then NFP, and see how price actually reacts to this data. If inflation proves persistent and employment is stronger than expected, I will look for opportunities to cautiously short after the move is confirmed. It is important for me to see that sellers are truly in control, rather than merely getting a brief impulse on the news. If the data are weaker, I will not cling to the bearish scenario simply because of my own view. In that case, it would be better to reassess the idea and wait for a new structure on the chart. The market can change direction very quickly after important macroeconomic data. Therefore, what matters most to me now is the price reaction after the figures, not trying to guess them in advance.

Overall, I see this week as a test of how ready the market is to continue its current move. PCE on September 30 and NFP on October 2 will provide two important signals about inflation and the state of employment. My baseline outlook remains bearish, but I am leaving room for the scenario to change after the data are released. If the figures support more hawkish rate expectations, I will watch more closely for possible pressure on the stock market. If the data show a cooling economy and easing inflation, the bearish thesis may lose relevance. For me, it is more important now to remain flexible than to try to predict every move. I will monitor the market reaction and my positions on Gate. I am sharing my outlook and trading idea on Gate Square with #WeeklyTradeShare.

#USStocks
#GateStocks

@Gate_Square
@Gate 广场
$BTC