#WeeklyTradeShare

This week, I am watching $MU most closely, as Micron is due to release its Q4 results on September 30. The company ended the previous quarter with record figures, while its Q4 forecast calls for around $50 billion in revenue and approximately 86% gross margin. At first glance, the figures look very strong, especially amid high demand for memory used in AI infrastructure. But this is exactly where I become cautious. A significant portion of the positive expectations may already be priced into the stock. Therefore, even a good report will not necessarily mean further growth for $MU. For me, the key question will not only be the quarterly result, but also what the company says about the coming quarters.

My sentiment toward $MU is bearish right now, but that does not mean I expect a sharp drop immediately after the report. I am thinking more about a possible correction if the actual results or guidance turn out to be weaker than the high expectations. Micron continues to report strong demand for HBM and other AI solutions, while conditions in the memory market remain tight. At the same time, high growth rates create a difficult base for the next results. I am interested in whether the company will be able to maintain such profit margin and earnings growth rates. I will also be watching comments on HBM4, data center shipments, and future capital expenditures. These details may give the market more information than the Q4 figures themselves. Therefore, I am not rushing to open a position before the report is released.

My key points for this week are as follows:
① Q4 result — I want to see how significantly the company beats or falls short of its own forecast;
② guidance — for me, it is important whether demand for AI memory will remain strong enough in the next quarter;
③ price reaction — even a strong report could become an opportunity to take profits if expectations were even higher.
I will pay particular attention to HBM, because this segment is currently one of the important drivers of demand for memory. In my view, it is important for the market to receive confirmation not only of current demand, but also of its sustainability. If the figures are strong but the guidance is cautious, the stock reaction could be mixed. If the company shows confident demand growth and maintains high targets, I will have to revise my bearish scenario. Therefore, it is more important for me now to observe the reaction of $MU after the report than to try to predict the move in advance.

My trading idea remains cautious for now: I am considering shorting $MU only after weakness is confirmed on the chart, rather than simply before the report itself. I would like to see a rejection of further upside and a break of the nearest support level confirmed by volume. If that does not happen, I would rather stay out of the position and observe. For me, it is important now not to catch the top, but to wait for a clear signal from the price. Strong demand for AI memory remains a real support factor for Micron, so the bearish scenario is not guaranteed. That is why I will keep risk under control and will not rush to increase the position. Let’s see what the September 30 report shows and how the market evaluates it. I am leaving my forecast and trading idea on Gate Square with #WeeklyTradeShare.

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