A lot of people are calling for a National Day pump. Let’s look at the data first!

ETFs have seen inflows for 6 straight days, with nearly 2.8 billion entering, but buying pressure is getting weaker day by day.
The structure hasn’t broken, but momentum is fading, and there is liquidity on both sides of the nearby liquidation levels. Put simply, this is not yet a one-sided short-squeeze setup, nor is it a one-sided slaughter setup. In a range-bound market, trade the swings.
BTC options:
Last Friday was the largest options expiry of the year, but volatility was far less intense than expected. Going forward, pay attention to:
➫October 30 (monthly), approximately 9.86 billion, extremely bullish, with Max Pain around 74,000
➫ December 25 (quarterly), approximately 10 billion dollars, with Max Pain around 76,000
Futures still point to a range-bound market.
BTC liquidation map:
🔹80,500–80,800
➥The densest cluster at the moment. On the HL chain, long liquidations around 80,700 total approximately 100 million dollars
🔹79,500–79,700
➥Cumulative long liquidations are approximately 330 million. Once 80,500 is breached, it will continue to provide fuel
🔹75,500–75,600
➥Cumulative long liquidations are approximately 680 million, making this the thickest layer
🔹85,500–85,700
➥Cumulative short liquidations are approximately 98 million. On HL, a single liquidation at 85,600 was approximately 18 million
🔹 88,100–88,200
➥ Short liquidations are approximately 150 million, guarding against a fake-breakout decline
🔹90,000-97,000
➥Cumulative short liquidations are approximately 1 billion (HL-chain whale single-liquidation amounts: approximately 12.9 million at 92,700, 11.4 million at 94,000, 50.18 million at 95,000, and 62 million at 95,800)
BTC technicals
On the daily chart, price remains above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, while RSI is pulling back and is neutral to slightly weak. Near-term resistance is at 85,300–87,400, with consensus support among bulls around 80,000.
If $BTC breaks below 80000 and fails to reclaim it, this bullish move is basically over.
One last bonus: A whale placed a massive order at 63,700. Is this meant to wipe out the bulls? Keep an eye on it and watch for a few more days.

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Comment 13

NFTSocialite2026-09-29

If $80k fails to hold, the bulls are screwed—couldn't be more straightforward.

GasAssassin2026-09-26

Must it rally during the National Day holiday? Let the data speak: ETFs have seen inflows for six consecutive days, but buying pressure is declining and momentum is clearly weakening. In this range-bound market, focus mainly on swing trades—don’t get carried away.

GateUser-919965ab2026-09-26

Volatility did not explode upon options expiry, bullish positions worth 9.8 billion at the end of October, Max Pain at 74,000, this level is interesting.

People on the coin path2026-09-26

Supporting this early 🙌

People on the coin path2026-09-26

Showing early support for 🙌

People on the coin path2026-09-26

Supporting 🙌 from the front row

OnchainDetective2026-09-26

This isn’t a short squeeze or a massacre—it’s just grinding: sell high, buy low, don’t hold out for bigger gains.

LiquidationWatch2026-09-26

HL on-chain: over 80.7k long positions were liquidated for 100 million, while 85.6k short positions were liquidated for 18 million. There is liquidity on both sides, and the main force is painting a range-bound market.

BlockBeacon2026-09-26

Options expiry volatility didn’t explode; $9.8 billion in bullish positions at the end of October, with Max Pain at $74k—this level is interesting.

LPDiver2026-09-26

$90,000-$97k has $1 billion in short liquidations stacked up. If it really gets pulled to this level, a massive number of shorts will be wiped out—but is that likely in the short term?

LightningTraveler2026-09-26

The liquidation chart shows the densest concentration at $80,500–$80.8k; below $80,500, another $330 million is waiting, so the possibility of cascading liquidations is fairly high.

A lot of people are calling for a National Day pump. Let’s look at the data first!

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