Bitcoin’s latest move above the 50-week average is giving bulls a signal worth watching.

Since 2011, there have been 13 weekly closes back above the 50-week average during completed bear markets. In 11 of those cases, Bitcoin never returned to take out the prior cycle low. Sunday’s close at $81,165 marks the 14th reclaim, coming after 45 weeks below the average, which now sits near $78.8K.
The four reclaims that began major new cycles came in January 2012, October 2015, May 2019, and March 2023. Each preceded a much larger advance, despite looking late at the time.
Timing is also important. Galaxy’s data shows confirmed reclaims historically appeared 130 to 284 days after the cycle bottom, with $BTC already up roughly 63% to 80%. This signal arrived just 82 days after the June 30 low near $58,525, with Bitcoin up about 39%.
That leaves the current setup less extended than previous clean reclaims.
Bitcoin is now around $85,150, while $89.6K marks the 2.0 Fibonacci extension of the $74.9K–$82.3K move. The two-year average sits near $88.8K, making $90K a key technical magnet.
The big test now is whether the $78.8K–$82K zone can become support.