BTC Returns to $80K, but This Time the Driving Force Is Different

$80K holds firm, and many people's first reaction is, “The halving cycle is taking effect.” But the 2026 market is already disproving this old narrative with facts.

Bitwise’s report is straightforward: Bitcoin’s new supply in 2026 is expected to be approximately 166k coins, but ETF demand will far exceed this supply. Institutions are absorbing new supply at five times the mining rate, creating a historic imbalance between supply and demand.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $630 million in net inflows in a single Friday, while consolidating a price floor around $74,000 to $84,000—the range happens to reflect the average cost basis of early ETF investors. In other words, continued ETF buying is building a structural price floor for BTC.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s market dominance has risen to its highest level since July 2025, with capital flowing from altcoins into BTC.

The core logic has changed: In the past, the focus was on the halving schedule; now, it is on the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path and ETF fund flows. Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, is maintaining his $100,000 year-end 2026 price target, based primarily on the structural entry of institutional capital rather than a halving-driven supply contraction.

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