#每周来晒 #Are you bullish or bearish on the weekend market?

I’m broadly bullish this week, based on one core point: BTC not only reclaimed $80,000, but also held above it.

This week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. The crypto market fell before rising, staging a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” rally. BTC rebounded from around $75,000 to above $81,000, up approximately 4.4% over 24 hours, while the total market capitalization returned to $2.78 trillion. The interesting point here is that BTC has traded sideways within the $75,600-$82,300 range since August 22. It is currently in the upper third of the range, with the 14-day RSI at 68.3, not yet in overbought territory, leaving further room for momentum.

The triggers are not purely sentiment-driven either. On September 17, the CFTC submitted two crypto market rulemaking proposals to the White House, one of which would allow unregistered exchanges to offer leveraged trading under CFTC supervision. Two days earlier, the Senate had just rejected the CLARITY Act by a 49:50 vote. Approximately $238 million in short positions were liquidated within a short period, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $159.5 million in inflows on Friday after consecutive outflows.

However, weekend liquidity is relatively weak, and major players can indeed create wicks and false breakouts. I won’t chase the price higher, but will monitor whether support holds when BTC pulls back into the $78,000-$79,000 range. On September 25, BTC options worth $14.63 billion will expire and settle on Deribit, another key variable to watch next week.