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The bill died, by a single vote. Rates were hiked, yet the market did not fall. More bizarrely, when people opened their market apps on Friday morning: Bitcoin had climbed above $81,000, surging more than 6% in a single day to a two-week high; Ethereum rose 7%; Solana gained nearly 12% in one day. About $250 million in short positions were liquidated within four hours.
A bill the crypto industry regarded as its “household registry” was torn apart, yet the market popped champagne. What exactly happened in between?
One vote killed two years of waiting
First, some background. The CLARITY Act, whose full name literally translates as the “Market Clarity Act,” is something the crypto industry had waited two full years for. Its core demand was actually quite simple: clearly define the jurisdictions of the two major regulators, the SEC and CFTC—who oversees which tokens and what constitutes illegal conduct, providing a clear map. The final version ran 635 pages, with countless pens broken at the negotiating table.
On Wednesday night, the Senate held the procedural vote that would determine its fate.
The result: 49 votes in favor and 50 against. By one vote, it failed even to enter the debate stage, let alone clear the 60-vote threshold for passage. By the simplest logic: the catalyst people had hoped for over two years was dead, so prices should fall. The market did indeed play along—Bitcoin briefly fell to $75,739 midweek, hitting a new low for September. The bears pulled up their chairs, waiting for the waterfall.
Then came the reversal.
Congress shut down, bureaucrats got to work
On Thursday, the SEC released the “innovation exemption” the market had been waiting a full year for, allowing tokenized stocks to be traded on-chain. In official-sounding language, it declared that the goal was to “bring America’s capital markets into the digital age.”
On Friday, the CFTC sent a complete set of crypto market rules directly to the White House for review. Note the weight of this package—the areas it covers were precisely what should have been written into the CLARITY Act.
Congress would not pass it? The regulators did it themselves, bypassing Congress and moving first.
Now look at the other chamber of Congress
This week’s developments: on Wednesday, a House committee passed a bill to elevate Trump’s “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” from an executive order to formal law;
on Thursday, the House Ways and Means Committee passed a crypto tax bill by a vote of 38 to 5.
In one sentence, this week can be summed up as follows: while the Senate was welding shut the front door, someone opened the side doors, back doors, and windows.
Dan Morehead, founder of Pantera Capital, which manages tens of billions of dollars in assets, said on CNBC Friday in a line destined to be quoted for years: “This industry does not need Congress. The SEC and CFTC are turning, one by one, the things that should have been in CLARITY into reality.”
Here is an analogy: it is like a building where the architect, Congress, spent two years arguing over “whether to install an elevator,” revising more than 600 pages of blueprints without approval. In the end, the property manager, the regulators, could not stand it anymore and installed temporary lifts on every floor first—usable and fast, just not as reliable as a permanent elevator.
The market voted with its money on Friday: if the property manager can really get things done, prices should rise first in salute.
The numbers do not lie: a week of extremes
Put this week’s market action side by side and the drama is off the charts:
Bitcoin: a midweek low of $75,739, a new September low; on Friday, it reclaimed $80,000 on heavy volume and reached as high as $81,034, currently at $81,196, up 6.27% in 24 hours; Ethereum at $2,622, up 7.22% in 24 hours; Solana at $113, up 11.86% in 24 hours, the fastest runner among major coins.
There is another unusual detail: the Fear and Greed Index is only 56. A week ago, that number was still 74.
Prices rose, yet the sentiment index fell instead—suggesting that this rally is not a retail frenzy, but more like big money quietly rebuilding positions.
On Friday, on-chain data firm Glassnode delivered a technical verdict: Bitcoin has reclaimed $76,660, its “True Market Mean Price,” and re-entered the “bull market zone.”
An even subtler line is $80,500—the total cost basis of companies worldwide that have put Bitcoin on their balance sheets. With prices now back above that line, companies accumulating coins have collectively returned to breakeven.
Interest is also flowing back. Star investor Kevin O’Leary publicly announced, “I’m back in the saddle buying new positions.” The next watershed he is watching is “a major stock exchange officially adopting blockchain.”
The market is doing so well that even traders have begun to grow suspicious.
Jeff Anderson of STS Digital said Thursday: “CLARITY is dead, and Warsh is hawkish on rate hikes. After this double blow, the market is suspiciously strong—everyone is treating Warsh as a bump in the road; once we get over it, it’s done.”
Do not pop the champagne yet: what is raised by one piece of paper can be torn down by one piece of paper
But there is an important point here that ordinary readers should understand.
The SEC exemption and the CFTC rule package are, in nature, “administrative rules.”
What is the difference between them and laws?
Here is another analogy: laws are carved in stone; changing them requires Congress to argue all over again. Administrative rules are notices posted on a wall—this administration puts them up, and the next can tear them down on its first day. Why did the House move this week to specifically legislate and “elevate” the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” established by Trump through an executive order in March 2025? Precisely because an executive order is not secure—if the president changes, the new administration can tear it down on its first day.
The crypto industry waited two years for CLARITY because, at its core, it wanted something carved in stone. So this week’s market action is less “catalyst delivered” than a sigh of relief that the worst-case scenario did not happen: the bill died, but people discovered that life could go on without it, and could even be pretty good.
That is the suspense going forward: after the White House finishes reviewing the CFTC’s rule package, will it stamp its approval and let it through, or will fresh turmoil emerge?
Democratic Senator Gillibrand has already said, “This is not the end.” CLARITY will return sooner or later.
The war between stone and notices has only just begun.
There is also a more tangible hurdle in the short term: analysts are broadly watching $82,000—the level where the mid-May rebound failed. Break through it and the sky is the limit; fail to do so, and it will trigger a false-breakout warning of a “double rejection.”
There is still a macro undercurrent overhead: oil prices are nearing $98, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surged to 5.34%, and the inflation embers have not gone out. The Federal Reserve’s hawkish claws could reach out again at any time.$BTC