#每周来晒 #周末行情你看涨还是看跌 Rate hike delivered, short squeeze rally! BTC surged 6% in a single day, breaking above 81000—chase the rally or wait for a pullback?

Macro analysis: The dovish dot plot following the rate hike sent the short squeeze rally into overdrive
The biggest event this week was the Fed’s rate hike. Let’s break down the signals.
First, rates were raised by 25 basis points, but the dot plot was dovish.
The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, its first rate hike since 2023. However, the accompanying dot plot forecasts a median policy rate of only 4.1% by the end of 2027, implying just one more rate hike rather than the prolonged tightening cycle the market had previously feared. This expectation gap is the core driver of the rebound—what the market feared was the start of a rate-hike cycle, but the dot plot told it there would be only one more hike, crushing the shorts.
Short squeeze: When heavily short investors are forced to close their positions by buying as prices rise, further accelerating the price increase—commonly known as a “short squeeze.”
Second, $531 million in liquidations over 24 hours, with shorts accounting for 90%.
This is the most direct data point—$531 million in liquidations across the market over 24 hours, including $471 million in short positions, nearly 90% of the total. BTC rose 5.88% in a single day, climbing from an opening price of 76355 to an intraday high of 80857. Leveraged-market shorts were collectively wiped out, and the short squeeze provided BTC with strong upward momentum.
On-chain data platform Glassnode shows that 83000–86000 is a dense short-liquidation zone. If the price continues higher and reaches this range, it could trigger another rapid rally.
Third, institutionalization is suddenly accelerating.
Two developments are worth watching:
First, Coinb is pushing for the U.S. Treasury and Commerce Departments to establish a Bitcoin reserve, saying this is a priority for the relevant agencies;
Second, Deutsche Bank plans to launch custody services for Bitcoin and digital assets by the end of 2026. The entry of traditional financial giants
shows that Bitcoin’s institutionalization narrative is moving from “storytelling” to “real-world implementation.”
Fourth, there are also signals that warrant caution.
Fed official Schmid made hawkish remarks, voting in favor of a rate hike and saying that recent inflation has exceeded 3%, while price growth remains hot across a broad range of goods and services. In addition, 8445 BTC flowed into exchange wallets over the past 24 hours, worth approximately $845 million, representing potential selling pressure.
ECB President Lagarde also intervened to block bn’s application for a crypto regulatory license (MiCA) in the EU.

The broad technical direction is bullish.
The ADX trend-strength indicator reached 40.6, well above the trend-confirmation threshold of 25. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed above the 200-day EMA to form a golden cross, while the relative strength index (RSI) remained solidly bullish at 63.3.
But one detail is worth noting: the volatility squeeze indicator has contracted for 11 consecutive candles, meaning volatility has been compressed for nearly two weeks. The eventual release could bring either a major rally or a sharp drop—the current contraction reading of 8.06% suggests this release may still lie ahead.

My view: Rate hike delivered + dovish dot plot + short squeeze rally—the bullish trend is firmly established. But the 4-hour RSI is extremely overbought in the short term, while 1-hour momentum is fading, reducing the risk-reward of chasing the rally. 83000–86000 is a dense short-liquidation zone; reduce positions and lock in profits when the price reaches that range instead of chasing it. $BTC