Yesterday’s big bullish BTC candle really left me baffled.

With nothing but bearish news, why did BTC surge instead?

The Fed just raised interest rates, and the bill didn’t pass. Under the usual script, shouldn’t BTC have continued taking a beating? Instead, BTC jumped from around $77,000 to above $81,000 in one move, gaining nearly 6% in 24 hours.

But this rally wasn’t without reason:

First, spot ETFs saw approximately $160 million in net inflows again, ending two consecutive days of outflows. This suggests institutional funds have started buying the dip again.

Second, although the crypto bill suffered a setback, the SEC and CFTC haven’t stopped. Instead, they are continuing to advance tokenized stocks and crypto market regulations. The market interpreted this as: “Congress isn’t moving, so the regulators are pushing ahead on their own.”

Third, the market had already priced in most of the rate hike and the bill’s failure. Once the bearish news was officially realized but the price failed to fall, a breakout above resistance triggered short covering, further amplifying the gains.

However, I don’t think it’s suitable to blindly chase above $81,000 right now.

The Fed’s hawkish stance and Treasury yields nearing 5% are still sources of pressure.

In the short term, BTC is more likely to consolidate its gains between $79,500 and $82,500 first. Holding above $81,800–$82,000 would create an opportunity to test $83,000 or even $84,000. If it falls back below $79,000, this breakout could turn into a spike followed by a pullback.

My short-term limit order strategy:

Direction: Buy the dip, don’t chase the rally
Entry: 79,800–80,200
Stop-loss: 78,850
Take-profit 1: 81,500
Take-profit 2: 82,800
Take-profit 3: 83,800

If the price doesn’t pull back and surges directly upward, I’d rather miss the trade.

BTC’s greatest talent is making everyone feel like they’ve got it figured out after a rally, then suddenly coming back to check whether their seat belts are fastened.

Do you think $80,000 will become support again this time, or will BTC first lure a group of people in before dumping back down?