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In the early hours of September 19 Beijing time, US stocks closed, and the semiconductor sector had another big night.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index suddenly surged in late trading, ultimately closing up 2.78%. Memory chips were the undisputed stars last night—SanDisk surged nearly 11%, while Micron, Seagate, and Western Digital also moved higher.
The three major indexes actually posted mixed results: the Nasdaq rose 0.39%, the S&P 500 gained 0.17%, while the Dow edged down 0.18%. The indexes looked flat, but funds were clearly flowing into chip stocks. A late-session surge reignited the market's enthusiasm for AI computing power.
What exactly happened overnight? How long can the rally last? And what does it mean for A-shares?
01 What happened overnight
First, the broader market: the indexes showed little overall movement, but funds were clearly scrambling to buy semiconductor stocks.
The leaders were almost all memory-chip stocks:
Stock Daily performance Catalyst and background
SanDisk +10.99% Trading volume of $30.7 billion; officially added to the S&P 100 before the September 21 open, prompting mandatory buying by passive fundsCoherent +7.19% Leader in optical communications and optoelectronics, benefiting from AI computing demand
Seagate Technology +6.93% Strengthening demand for hard disk drives and enterprise storageWestern Digital +4.13% Memory manufacturer; AI data centers are driving NAND demand
Micron Technology +approximately 4% Executives said the memory shortage would be difficult to ease in the short term
AMD +more than 2% Benefiting from the competitive landscape in AI chips
NVIDIA +1.34% Among the highest in trading volume; Jensen Huang signaled strong growth expectations
02 Why did they rise: three catalysts
This rally did not happen for no reason; at least three factors were driving it.
First, Jensen Huang spoke out again.
On September 17 local time, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said at an AI summit in Scotland that as AI continues to penetrate industries such as healthcare, manufacturing, and financial services, the company's chip sales next year could reach twice this year's level. He particularly emphasized that the current bottleneck is not demand, but NVIDIA's ability to produce the chips. After the news broke, NVIDIA rose more than 2.5% at one point during the session.
Second, tight memory supply and demand.
Micron executives said the memory shortage would be difficult to ease in the short term. Previously, Micron's CEO had stated bluntly that demand from AI data center customers had already exceeded the company's deliverable capacity by approximately 50%. As HBM, the “food” of AI chips, remains in persistent shortage, demand for DRAM and NAND from AI computing infrastructure is also very strong, and expectations of tight industry supply and demand and rising prices are gaining momentum.
Third, index rebalancing taking effect.
SanDisk will officially be added to the S&P 100 before the September 21 open, replacing longtime constituent Colgate-Palmolive. Passive index funds and ETFs will be forced to buy it, making this one of the most direct recent catalysts. In April this year, SanDisk had already entered the Nasdaq 100.
03 Bull-bear divergence: reversal or pulse
The market is lively, but the divergence is also clear.
Bulls argue that AI computing infrastructure investment continues to increase, HBM and memory chips are in short supply, and expectations of a reversal in the memory cycle are strengthening; combined with individual stocks being added to indexes and falling US Treasury yields, the valuation pressure on high-valuation tech stocks has eased, giving the return of funds to the semiconductor sector industrial logic to support it.
Bears warn that this rally may be merely a short-term emotional rebound, combined with a pulse driven by index rebalancing. AI sector valuations are already elevated, while Federal Reserve policy remains uncertain.
Some analysts also point out that the market's attitude toward NVIDIA has shifted from “believing in ambition” to “waiting for shipment data”—although Huang's comments were strong, the stock-price reaction has already become more muted. Whether sustained performance can be delivered remains to be seen.
04 What to watch next
Rather than predicting tomorrow's gains or losses, it is better to watch several signals that could change the outlook:
The fund flows after SanDisk's addition to the S&P 100 (before the September 21 open);
The latest earnings reports and HBM shipment data from Micron and other memory manufacturers, and whether they can validate expectations of tight supply and demand;
The direction of Federal Reserve policy and marginal changes in US Treasury yields;
Overnight, chip stocks reignited market enthusiasm with a late-session surge. But beneath that enthusiasm, the more important question is: Is the rally being driven by long-term industry strength or short-term sentiment? For investors, distinguishing between the two is often more important than predicting tomorrow's gains or losses.$SNDK