⚠️ 5 key things to watch closely this weekend

**1️⃣ The Middle East is the only true black swan (most important)**
Two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz within 24 hours, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned that unauthorized vessels "will be destroyed"; Trump said he is nearing a "major decision," even using the word "annihilate," and is set to meet Gulf state leaders next week. **If fighting really breaks out this weekend → oil prices surge → risk assets will likely retreat.** This is the event most likely to make the $80,000 gained and then lost again

**2️⃣ Thin weekend liquidity—beware of wicks**
U.S. stocks are closed and ETFs are not trading, making crypto market volatility vulnerable to amplification by small amounts of capital. The $7 trillion in U.S. stock options has also just expired. **Don’t take weekend gains or losses too seriously; see whether prices can hold on Monday.**

**3️⃣ Monday evening’s ETF data = the litmus test for whether the rebound is real**
Thursday’s $159.5 million net inflow (BlackRock’s IBIT alone saw +$184 million) was indeed a reversal signal, but **the week as a whole still saw $427 million in net outflows, with outflows on 6 of the past 7 days**. A single day turning positive ≠ a reversal; it only counts if inflows continue.

**4️⃣ Watch $80,000 and the 365-day moving average**
- **Holding $81,700–$82,200** (the 365-day moving average + the monthly high) → opens the way to $83,000 → $85–86K → $90K (Coinbase research target)
- **Falling below $77,500** → breakout failure, with a return to $75K or even $71–68K
- $80,000 is the first support level, while $78,500–80,000 is a thin-volume zone created by a sharp rally and is prone to a retest

**5️⃣ Sentiment is already overheated**
The Fear and Greed Index surged from fear to 71, or greed, within a week, and short-term FOMO is picking up. **When prices are rising, the key thing to consider is risk—not chasing the rally.**