Whether the AI rebound can turn into a major upward wave depends on these three signals

The U.S. stock market’s rebound this time was indeed strong.
On September 17, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.61%, the S&P 500 rose 1.14%, the Nasdaq rose 1.69%, and the semiconductor index rose 3.14%. AI- and semiconductor-related stocks including Arm, AMD, SanDisk, and Micron rose broadly.
Risk-off sentiment has eased somewhat, but I believe the biggest risk to watch now is interpreting the “rebound” directly as a “new major upward wave.”#美股AI概念股全线反弹 + #Gate广场中秋团圆局
To determine whether the AI rally can continue, I will watch three signals.
First, U.S. Treasury yields. A high-interest-rate environment naturally puts pressure on high-valuation growth stocks.
Second, capital expenditures by tech giants. If investment in AI servers, chips, and data centers continues to grow, industry-chain orders will have fundamental support.
Third, the earnings performance of AI companies. Ultimately, stock prices still have to return to revenue and profit growth.
That is also why I am paying close attention to Astera Labs.
It is not as widely known as NVIDIA, but it occupies an important link in AI infrastructure. The company provides products related to PCIe, CXL, and AI networking interconnects, and showcased AI connectivity solutions for multiple GPU platforms in its first-quarter 2026 earnings materials.
Of course, AI-related stocks are generally highly volatile, and Astera Labs likewise cannot be discussed separately from its valuation and earnings.
Therefore, I would rather define this rally as a stage in which the trend is regaining investors’ attention, rather than directly declaring that a new bull market has begun.
If AI industry data continues to improve, the substance behind this rise will become increasingly solid.