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The high-interest-rate trade may have only just been repriced
The most noteworthy aspect of this Fed rate hike is that it did not signal that “hiking is over.” The September meeting unanimously approved a 25bp hike, while the dot plot showed that most officials still expect further tightening this year.
This means the market’s trading logic may be changing: in the past, everyone was discussing “when will rates be cut,” but now the question has become “when will rates be hiked again?”
In this environment, it is not surprising to see the dollar and Treasury yields strengthen. The renewed rise in risk-free rates will increase the cost of capital for stocks, gold, and crypto assets. In particular, after BTC’s significant previous rally, the market is naturally more sensitive to richly valued assets.
But this does not mean BTC must continue falling all the way. The rate hike has already been implemented, and some expectations had already been priced in. What truly determines the market’s direction going forward will still be inflation, employment, and the next FOMC signal.
So, rather than betting that “the bad news is fully priced in,” it is better to split up your positions. Continue observing with your core holdings, and wait for volatility to play out before adding new positions. The market never lacks opportunities; what it lacks is the ability to keep one’s hands under control when the timing is wrong. #Gate广场中秋团圆局