🩸 Nike’s turnaround story is facing another serious test.

$NKE recently traded near $36, around its 52-week low and roughly 12-year lows.

Then came another warning from Wall Street:

Robert W. Baird downgraded Nike from Outperform to Neutral and cut its price target from $70 to $44.

Nike is also set to leave the S&P 100 on September 21, ending an almost 18-year run in the index.

But there’s an important distinction:

Nike is leaving the S&P 100 — not the S&P 500.
The stock will remain in the broader S&P 500.

The bigger issue is what happens next.

Nike’s market value has fallen sharply over the past several years, while slowing sales, competition and the difficult turnaround have kept pressure on the stock.

There has also been recent insider selling, but I wouldn’t treat those transactions alone as proof that executives expect further downside.

So I’m not trying to call a bottom here.

The real test is whether Nike’s fundamentals can start improving before the market loses patience with the turnaround.

I’ll be watching:

• Revenue growth
• Margins
• Inventory
• China demand
• Product momentum
• Management’s turnaround execution

The stock price shows the pressure.

The next earnings reports need to show whether that pressure is finally starting to ease.