#布伦特原油下跌3% #Gate广场中秋团圆局 The global rate-hike wave is putting dual pressure on oil prices. The central banks of the US, Europe, and Japan have raised rates in rare synchronization, marking the first such occurrence since 2006. The probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike has reached 87.3%, while the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike is extremely high. Rate hikes are pressuring oil prices through both demand and financial channels, and the IEA has increased its expected decline in global oil demand this year by 940k barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day.

Supply-side constraints remain. The IEA expects global oil supply to decrease by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, delaying the market's return to oversupply until 2027. VLCC rates from the Middle East to China have reached $982k per day, while freight from the Gulf of Oman to China is equivalent to approximately $11.50 per barrel, a record high.
Short-term outlook: Brent is expected to fluctuate widely between $96 and $118 per barrel from September to November. If Saudi Arabia's pipeline resumes operations as scheduled and rate hikes are implemented, oil prices may fall further to around $100; if pipeline repairs are obstructed or geopolitical tensions escalate again, Brent could retest levels above $110.
Maintain light positions and wait for further developments in the ceasefire agreement and guidance from the Fed's September 18 rate-setting meeting.$XBRUSD