#ZEC大涨23%领涨PayFi板块 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 How Much Further Can the Privacy Sector Go? — The Real Substance and Ceiling Behind ZEC's Lead

BTC is falling because of the FOMC rate hike, while ZEC surged against the trend on the eve of the FOMC. This is no coincidence—it is capital actively seeking refuge in privacy assets amid the “regulatory tightening” narrative.

The four real drivers behind ZEC’s surge
First, the ETF channel has opened, and compliant capital is entering with real money. Grayscale’s ZEC spot ETF (ZCSH) has been listed on the NYSE for two weeks, with assets surpassing $500 million and locking up more than 550,000 ZEC, approximately 3% of the circulating supply—equivalent to removing 3% of circulating tokens from the market and locking them in the ETF. This is hard logic on the level of “supply contraction,” not a narrative.
Second, on-chain demand for privacy is genuinely growing. ZEC in Zcash’s shielded pool increased from 2.66 million in March to 4.98 million, nearly doubling, while the shielded pool’s share rose from 18% to 29.4%, and weekly transaction volume surged from 30,000-40,000 to 460,000. A token only has value when it is used more—this is the fundamental difference between ZEC and other Memes.
Third, expectations of the halving are building. IOSG noted that “regulatory anxiety is meeting the halving effect”—ZEC’s block reward halving is approaching, creating a double squeeze on supply through reduced issuance and ETF lockups. Mining profitability is surging (miners are making money, rather than selling at a loss), providing a second pillar of support.
Fourth, the countertrend logic that “the tighter the regulation, the more valuable privacy becomes.” The CLARITY Act has stalled and the FOMC has raised rates, causing traditional crypto assets to fall, but the privacy-asset narrative happens to be that of “antifragile tools in an era of tightening regulation”—capital is actively seeking assets outside regulators’ focus.

How much further can it go? Three layers
Short term (1-2 weeks): $1,500 is the market consensus target, but a pullback could come at any time. Coinpedia and multiple analysts have set $1,500 as the next target, supported by mining profitability and ETF inflows. However, after gaining 43% in a week and 165% in 30 days, it is severely overbought in the short term—the $57.36 million in liquidations over 24 hours (second only to BTC/ETH) is a warning: some traders have just opened 5x leveraged long positions at $1,322, and the more such leveraged positions there are, the more violent the wicks will be. $1,100-1,150 is the key near-term support; a break below it would bring a retest of $1,000.
Medium term (1-3 months): Watch ETF expansion and the halving’s implementation. If ZCSH rises from $500 million toward $1 billion+ and the halving officially takes effect, the $1,500-2,000 range will have realistic support. Whales have accumulated $13.65 million worth of ZEC within a week—the big money is betting on the medium-term thesis.
Long term (more than 1 year): The EU’s July 2027 privacy-coin ban is a real ceiling, and this must be stated honestly. This is not fearmongering—the EU has clearly planned to ban privacy coins, with ZEC and XMR both in its sights. Every round of frenzy in the privacy sector is consuming the window before the ban takes effect. So this is a “window-of-opportunity trade,” not a “permanent narrative.”

How should we view DASH’s rally alongside it?
DASH’s rally alongside ZEC is essentially sector rotation, not an independent thesis: it has no ETF channel (no compliant-capital entry point like ZEC), its privacy attributes are weaker than those of ZEC/XMR (PrivateSend is optional and not enabled by default), and its “payments” narrative has benefited from the current PayFi wave. The hallmark of a follower coin is that it follows when the leader rises and crashes first when the leader falls. For those looking to participate in the privacy sector, prioritize the leaders (ZEC/XMR); DASH’s volatility is more suitable for short-term speculation.


The trend is not over (with triple support from ETFs, the halving, and demand), but in the short term, some profits should be taken off the table.

The privacy sector is the brightest star in this round of “regulatory headwinds,” and the logic is real—but remember two numbers: $1,500 is the consensus target (meaning the crowd is most concentrated there), and 2027 is the EU’s ban window (meaning this game has a time limit). Ride the trend and capitalize on the window, but always leave yourself a clear exit route. $ZEC