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The rate hike has been implemented, but that does not mean the bearish pressure has been exhausted.
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years, bringing the policy rate to 3.75%—4.00%. What is really making the market nervous is not these 25bp, but the policy path ahead. The latest dot plot shows that among the 18 officials who submitted forecasts, 16 believe there should be at least one more rate hike this year.
Therefore, it is still too early to easily conclude that “rate hike implemented = bearish pressure exhausted.” U.S. stocks retreating, the dollar strengthening, and Treasury yields rising while gold comes under pressure indicate that funds are repricing the high-interest-rate environment. BTC fluctuating sharply around $75k—$76.5k is also quite normal.
For BTC, the real pressure comes from liquidity, not the 25bp figure itself. If inflation remains stubborn and the market further bets on rate hikes, risk-asset valuations may still come under pressure. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
Therefore, I am more inclined to observe rather than rush to buy the dip at the sight of a decline. BTC’s key support levels can be monitored, but position management is more important than guessing the bottom. Once the market has fully digested the question of “whether there will be another rate hike,” the direction may become clearer.