BTC, gold, or cash? Look at the liquidity direction first

After the Federal Reserve resumed raising rates, both gold and BTC came under pressure. On the surface, it looks like a broad retreat from risk assets, but in reality, it is still about the repricing of dollar liquidity.
The policy rate was raised to 3.75%–4.00%, while the dot plot showed that 16 of the 18 officials expected at least one more rate hike this year. This means the market cannot simply interpret it as a “one-off rate hike.”
Gold’s fundamentals also need to be reassessed. It is usually influenced jointly by real interest rates, the dollar, and safe-haven demand. When the dollar and yields rise in tandem, gold can come under short-term pressure. BTC is more sensitive, affected by both liquidity and market risk appetite, so its volatility may be greater.
If I were to break down my approach, I would not simply choose between BTC and gold, but would first retain some cash flexibility. If BTC experiences a sharp sell-off, we can watch for signs of stabilization; for gold, focus on real interest rates and the dollar’s trend.
The most important thing now is not to predict the next candlestick, but to determine whether the market has entered a short-term tightening shock or a longer period of high interest rates. The answer will lead to completely different asset performance. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
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