Don’t rush to buy the dip—wait for the market to give you the answer

The 25 bp hike has already been delivered, but what the market is really trading is how many more 25 bp hikes there will be after this one. That is also why the dollar strengthened, Treasury yields rose, and U.S. stocks pulled back after the Federal Reserve announced the rate hike. Reuters reported that after this hike, short-term Treasury yields rose to a high not seen since mid-2024, as the market continued to digest expectations of further rate hikes.
For BTC, the consolidation around $75,000–$76,500 is essentially both bulls and bears repricing future liquidity. #美联储三年来首次加息25个基点
If inflation cools and the Federal Reserve ultimately does not continue hiking rates, the tightening trade could gradually reverse, naturally leaving room for risk assets such as BTC to recover. Conversely, if inflation continues to exceed expectations and the market further raises its rate-hike expectations, the “higher-for-longer rates trade” could continue to pressure risk assets.
So the easiest mistake to make now is to treat a single rate hike as a clear bottom signal. Until the market confirms it, both buying the dip and chasing shorts require caution.
Rather than guessing the bottom, I would rather wait for trend confirmation. There will always be a second chance in the market, but realizing after going all in that you misjudged the cycle is what truly hurts.
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