#Arc生态热门代币波动加剧 #Gate广场中秋团圆局 Can the Arc ecosystem stay hot? Buy the dip or stay on the sidelines?

——My clear view: stay on the sidelines

First, look at the complete picture on September 17

ARGUS’s market cap fell from a peak of $38 million to $19.43 million (-40% in 12 hours, and still down 17% over 6 hours); LONG fell from $17 million to about $4.69 million (-72%); COOL fell from $7.9 million to $5.4 million (-75%); TOLLY fell from $25 million to $9.36 million.
But the truly fatal blow was another piece of news: ACTFUN, the Launchpad on Arc, “rugged” on its first day—its founder directly deleted the Telegram community and disappeared. This news carries more weight than all the declines combined: Memes are a game of trust, and a Launchpad rug pull is like an exchange hack, directly destroying new capital’s willingness to enter.

Can the hype continue? Look at it on two levels
Arc chain hype: Yes, but it will switch tracks.
Arc has genuine institutional backing—Circle’s favored child, 11 founding validators (BlackRock, DTCC, Visa, Mastercard), $222 million in financing before launch, $74 billion+ in USDC circulation, and Circle is also a company listed on the NYSE (CRCL, up 17% over the previous two days).
But Arc is positioned as institutional financial infrastructure, and Memes were never the main course. The chain’s hype will shift from “Meme speculation” to “application adoption”—the focus ahead will not be which token has pumped again, but whether USDC settlement volume, DeFi TVL, and institutional products actually go live.
Arc Meme hype: It is very unlikely to continue and is already entering a classic death spiral.
A hundredfold on day one→halving on day two→liquidity withdrawal→another halving—this is a script already validated by Solana, Robinhood Chain, and Base.
Even worse, Meme liquidity on Arc is extremely shallow (previous data showed ARGUS liquidity at $90,000 and COOL at around $60,000)—slippage is huge during declines, and you may not even be able to get out. After the ACTFUN rug-pull incident, new capital’s trust in Arc Memes has already cracked, and without trust, Memes have no incremental inflows.

Buy the dip or stay on the sidelines?——Stay on the sidelines; buying the dip now is equivalent to catching a falling knife
Four reasons, each stronger than the last:
First, there are clear signs that the decline is not over. ARGUS fell 40% and then dropped another 17% over 6 hours—the selling pressure has not been exhausted; this is acceleration, not stabilization. Tokens like LONG and COOL that are down more than 70% usually retest their lows a second time. The first wave of declines for day-one tokens rarely ends in one move.
Second, there is no “anchor.” Meme coins have no valuation anchor, so you cannot calculate whether “$19.43 million is the bottom”—it could fall to $5 million or go to zero. Buying the dip on a Meme is essentially guessing, and the odds are extremely low when guessing on an asset in a death spiral.
Third, the macro headwinds have not gone away. The FOMC rate hike has been implemented + CLARITY failed + the broader market is weak (BTC is still struggling around $75,000-76,000), and the Meme sector is cooling across the board—the odds of Arc surviving independently against the trend are low. The halo of a new chain cannot withstand the broader market trend.
Fourth, the things truly worth buying on a dip are not these coins. Although ARGUS claims to have an “80% revenue buyback-and-burn” mechanism (4.3% of the supply has already been burned), the Launchpad’s actual revenue has not taken off yet, so the buyback is merely a narrative; LONG is the platform token of Long.supply, essentially the same. These are all “Memes packaged as platform tokens,” not “value assets.”

Under what conditions should we pay attention again

Three signs of a turnaround; let’s talk after two are met:
1. Reduced-volume stabilization for tokens like ARGUS (for example, market cap falling into the $5-8 million range and trading volume shrinking by more than 90%)—then the focus would be on the “platform token logic” rather than the “Meme logic”
​2. Real application data emerging on the Arc chain (USDC settlement volume, DeFi TVL, institutional products going live)—the chain’s second wave of hype
​3. BTC reclaiming $77,000+ and the Meme sector stabilizing overall—the sector’s Beta recovery


Arc is worth tracking (its institutional backing is real), but Arc Memes are not worth buying on the dip (trust is broken + liquidity is extremely shallow + the decline has not stopped). Buying the dip now is not “value discovery”; it is becoming the exit liquidity for day-one FOMO profit-takers. $ARC