#Gate广场中秋团圆局

‍#每周来晒

#Arc生态热门代币波动加剧

Bloodbath at launch—how can the ARC ecosystem narrative make a comeback?

Yesterday, the Arc mainnet officially went live. This L1 public blockchain, backed by Circle and with institutions such as BlackRock and Visa participating as validator nodes, had been highly anticipated by the market. Social media hype peaked before the launch, with large amounts of capital positioning early in new ecosystem projects. But the script of “good news becoming bad news once it materializes” played out again: ARGUS fell more than 40% in 12 hours, LONG plunged more than 70%, and COOL’s decline reached 75%. Many funds that chased the rally became deeply trapped, while on-chain liquidations continued to intensify.

In fact, many people confuse one key point: Arc itself is institution-grade public blockchain infrastructure, while ARGUS, LONG, and COOL are community-issued ecosystem MEME / launchpad tokens on the Arc chain. The two cannot be equated. The narrative for Arc’s mainnet is that of an underlying public blockchain serving institutional finance and stablecoin settlement, whereas these sharply declining tokens are merely small ecosystem coins launched by leveraging Arc’s popularity. They have no institutional backing, small market caps, and thin liquidity. Their speculative attributes far outweigh their practical application value, which is also the core reason behind this round of sharp pullbacks.

Can the Arc ecosystem’s popularity continue?

In the short term, attention will quickly diverge and speculative enthusiasm will cool, but the underlying narrative still has the potential to continue gaining traction.

1.Short term (1~2 weeks): The frenzied rally in ecosystem grassroots tokens will most likely come to an end. After this sharp sell-off, retail investor confidence has been damaged, and capital will exit MEME ecosystem coins without fundamentals. Tokens such as ARGUS, LONG, and COOL are unlikely to immediately replicate their previous surges. Even if a rebound occurs, it will mostly be a recovery after being oversold, not a new primary uptrend. They will subsequently enter a period of supply absorption, repeatedly oscillating while forming a bottom.

2.Medium term: Arc itself has solid institutional foundations as a public blockchain. Its positioning around USDC as Gas and sub-second settlement is aimed at institutional financial asset settlement. If genuine institutional business, large-scale asset issuance on-chain, and high-quality DeFi projects are deployed in the future, the public blockchain narrative will be repeatedly brought up by the market. At that point, new ecosystem tokens will have opportunities to rotate into the spotlight, but they will most likely no longer be the current batch of tokens that have already completed their distribution. In one simple sentence: The story of the Arc public blockchain is not over, but the current round of speculation in ARGUS, LONG, and COOL is basically over.

I believe the short term presents an opportunity to bottom-fish for a rebound

As the saying goes, “buy when nobody cares.” After the Arc ecosystem tokens collectively plunged, short-term sentiment has been fully released. ARGUS, LONG, and COOL have rapidly dropped 40%-75%, quickly exhausting short-term bearish momentum and entering an oversold emotional state. From a game-theory perspective, there is currently an opportunity for a short-term rebound—a window for emotional recovery after the negative news has been fully priced in. A light-position attempt at an oversold rebound may be appropriate. I will lightly bottom-fish some LONG tokens, targeting a profit of 30%-50%. Do you think Little God of Wealth’s bottom-fishing attempt this round will succeed, or will it be “catching a falling knife”? Let’s discuss in the comments section!