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The Rate Decision Is in Place; the Real Test Is Just Beginning
In the early hours of September 17 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its September rate decision, raising the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, marking its first rate hike in more than three years.
But for the market, “whether to hike” is no longer the whole answer. The subsequent path deserves greater attention. The latest economic projections show that the Fed expects PCE inflation to reach 3.7% in 2026, above the long-term target of 2%, while raising its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 2.3%.
This means the policy logic is not simply to suppress demand, but to regain control of inflation while the economy remains resilient. For risk assets such as BTC, gold, and U.S. stocks, the signals released by the dot plot and press conference may have the greatest impact on market moves. What the market has always feared is not a single rate hike, but how many more may follow. #美联储即将公布利率决定