25 basis points are just the opening act—the dot plot is the real focus

The Fed’s September meeting has provided the answer: interest rates were raised by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4%, and the decision passed unanimously with all 12 votes. The official statement said that US economic activity has remained solid, domestic spending has been resilient, but inflation remains elevated.
So this time, what the market really needs to parse is not just the 25 basis points, but the Fed’s assessment of future interest rates. The latest dot plot shows the median federal funds rate at 4.1% in 2026, also 4.1% in 2027, and down to 3.9% in 2028.
Simply put, the rate-cut narrative is not as smooth for now. With inflation not having fully returned to 2% and the economy showing no clear signs of losing momentum, the Fed naturally will not easily signal a dovish shift. The market may next reprice around “how long high interest rates will be maintained,” and volatility may continue to rise as a result.#美联储即将公布利率决定