Fed Turns Hawkish; Don’t Rush to Front-Run the Market

The biggest change at this meeting was the Fed raising interest rates again. The 25-basis-point hike itself is not particularly large, but the shift in policy direction deserves attention. Official data show that the Fed raised the interest rate to 3.75%—4%, while noting that economic activity remains solid, productivity growth is strong, and capital investment remains resilient.
More notably, in the September economic projections, the median forecast for core PCE inflation in 2026 was 3.4%, still clearly above the 2% target. At the same time, the 2026 unemployment rate forecast was 4.1%, down from the previous forecast of 4.3% in June.
These data indicate that the Fed is not dealing with an economy in obvious recession, but rather a combination of “growth continues and inflation remains elevated.” For the crypto market, liquidity expectations naturally become a key variable. BTC may continue to fluctuate in the short term alongside the dollar, U.S. Treasury yields, and risk appetite, so trading pace may prove more important than the narrative.#美联储即将公布利率决定